According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 21st to 25th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7930 yuan/ton to 7907 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing a narrow decline. The industry’s capacity utilization rate continues to decline, with supply side support and supply side contraction. Downstream maintenance requires immediate follow-up, but resistance to high prices still exists. The supply-demand game continues, and the market is operating in a stalemate.
On the supply side, some devices are still under maintenance, temporary parking, and defect elimination. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has dropped to around 4.4%, and the market supply continues to decrease, with some favorable support from the supply side. At the same time, some devices have released May maintenance news, and the industry is under long-term loss pressure. The suppliers have a strong positive attitude towards supporting the market, which limits the market’s further downward exploration space. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market remains stable and watchful. Due to power maintenance and cost pressures, the supply in Shaanxi and Wumeng regions has significantly decreased. At the same time, there have been irregular power restrictions in Inner Mongolia, which have increased supply instability and accelerated the consumption of market inventory. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 10:00 am on April 25th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2420 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are running weakly, and the cost of BDO is affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, due to the average performance of terminal demand, the overall downstream production has slightly declined, and the cost of the industrial chain is under pressure, resulting in weak ability to accept high prices. This has led to inconsistent implementation of new cycle contract policies and sporadic small orders for spot goods. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The supply-demand game will continue, and market fluctuations may be limited. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.