According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7330.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The current price has dropped by 19.14% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in March. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently, with slight fluctuations this month. The overall market for raw material potassium chloride has fluctuated and declined, with poor cost support. The competition pressure in the potassium carbonate market has increased, and downstream factories have limited purchasing enthusiasm, mainly based on demand, with slight fluctuations in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7150-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in March was downward. The final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai is around 2200 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2150 yuan/ton.

At present, no new goods have arrived at the potassium chloride port, and downstream factories are not actively purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Since entering March, the acetonitrile market has shown a poor trend, with prices fluctuating downward. As of March 25th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to the beginning of the month (9840 yuan/ton). Until recently, there has been weak positive news on the supply side, and the atmosphere in the acetonitrile market has been lukewarm, causing the price center to shift downwards.

In terms of cost:

The favorable situation in the acetonitrile market is difficult to find. The price of raw material acetic acid has fallen this month, and some acetic acid companies have sufficient inventory and lowered their prices. However, the overall industry operating load is still high, and the supply is relatively stable. Downstream operation is still acceptable, and demand is normal. However, the atmosphere of spot negotiations is still relatively average, and operators remain wait-and-see. The trading focus of the acetic acid market is downward.

At present, the overall performance of demand in various downstream industries is average: the pharmaceutical industry market is undergoing consolidation and operation, but the market demand is average, and more follow-up is needed. Pesticides have experienced a narrow decline, with prices and inventories of pesticide products at historically low levels. Upstream costs continue to be under pressure, and some varieties have undergone significant market changes. There are also few spot goods in channel factories, indicating signs of bottoming out and rebounding. The solvent and reagent industry has been negotiated and organized, and the spot market has been multi-dimensional with negotiations and transactions. Enterprises have maintained on-demand consumption, and the industry is operating in a volatile manner.

Future Market Forecast

In the face of unfavorable supply side conditions, the price of acetonitrile has fluctuated downward, and some by-product production units are expected to restart in the later stage. In addition, there is a possibility of an increase in the start of synthesis, and downstream terminal demand is still average. The drag of demand may suppress the upward space of acetonitrile. Business Society analysts predict that the market price of acetonitrile will remain weak in the short term, with price fluctuations expected to range from 9700 to 11300 yuan/ton. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the supply of devices and the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 22, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with March 17, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8233 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%.

Entering late March, the domestic butanone market has shown a weak downward trend. Entering this week, the decline of butanone has intensified. Under the influence of insufficient demand, the overall negotiation focus of the butanone market continues to move towards a low level, and the low price of butanone in Shandong has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere on the butanone exchange is quiet, new inquiries are relatively light, the mentality of operators is average, and the overall pace of market shipments is slow. As of March 22, the domestic market price of butanone is based on around 7800-8400 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100-300 yuan/ton within five days.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the effective support on the butanone market is limited, and the overall supply and demand circulation in the South and East China markets is weak. Downstream caution and wait-and-see sentiment are strong. Business Society butanone data analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on March 18th this week was 1800 yuan/ton, and on March 21st it was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% in price.

The quotation for concentrated nitric acid is weak, and the current transaction volume in the nitric acid market is still lower than expected. Manufacturers mainly sell orders, and the market situation is weak without positive support. The focus is on the market transaction situation.

During the period of 3.18-3.21, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 10.31%, the downstream aniline price increased by 1.78%, the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.49%, and the TDI price decreased by 1.19%. Downstream demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products is weak. Although there is support for upstream liquid ammonia prices, downstream demand is weak. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that nitric acid prices may mainly fluctuate weakly.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 37166.67 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On March 20th, the price of pure benzene was 8573.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from last week and 17.77% from the same period last year. Negotiations in the East China market have declined, with few spot transactions. On the market, there were mixed ups and downs, and downstream inventory was sufficient, creating a wait-and-see atmosphere.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On March 20th, the price of nitric acid was 1790 yuan/ton, and on March 13th, it was 1833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% from last week and 26.78% from the same period last year. At present, the market continues to be weak, and manufacturers are shipping according to the market.

Downstream aspect

This week, resorcinol has been running smoothly and there has been no improvement in demand. The downstream market for dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates is slightly calm.

Overall, some domestic meta phenylenediamine units have been shut down for renovation, resulting in tight market supply and weak demand for downstream dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products. Expected stable consolidation of meta phenylenediamine.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 19th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 43500 yuan/ton. Today, the price of lithium iron phosphate is still stable, with a strong trend. The price has increased by 0.05% compared to the previous day, with an increase of about 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the price has increased by 0.28% compared to the same period last week, and the price has increased by 1.16% compared to the same period last month. Currently, there is still support for the upstream cost side of lithium iron phosphate, with a strong trend in raw material prices, mainly digesting the previous increase. Currently, downstream demand is good, the procurement atmosphere is positive, and the energy storage market is still hot. According to reports, the leading enterprise of lithium iron phosphate, Ningde Times, has made new progress in lithium iron phosphate batteries. In recent days, At the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Conference Forum, the company’s directors stated that CATL’s first skateboard chassis product based on lithium iron phosphate batteries will be officially put into mass production in the second half of this year, and there is still room for improvement in demand for lithium iron phosphate.

2、 Market analysis

Today, the price of lithium iron phosphate has maintained a stable, medium to strong trend, with a price increase of 0.05% compared to the previous day, around 20 yuan/ton. As of March, the lithium iron phosphate market has been showing a continuous growth trend. As of March 19th, the overall price of lithium iron phosphate in March has increased by 1.16%, with an increase of about 500 yuan/ton. Currently, the upstream cost side has strong support, and downstream demand has increased. Lithium iron phosphate has been improving in the short term. Currently, mica prices remain stable, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. The raw material lithium carbonate quotation has mainly increased, and downstream procurement willingness is relatively strong. Currently, the demand for energy storage type lithium iron phosphate batteries is not decreasing, and with the promotion of policies, the overall market transaction focus has shifted upwards.

In terms of iron phosphate: Currently, iron phosphate enterprises are affected by the downstream lithium iron phosphate market, stimulating their production enthusiasm and strong willingness to raise prices. In March, downstream demand has recovered well, and the operating rate of iron phosphate enterprises has increased. In March 2024, China’s iron phosphate production reached 110000 tons, an increase of 85% month on month and 59% year-on-year, respectively. The increase in downstream demand has driven the expansion of iron phosphate production capacity. Currently, the mainstream price of iron phosphate is between 10000 and 10500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term.

In terms of cost: Currently, the prices of spodumene and lithium carbonate are still showing an upward trend. Upstream raw materials continue to rise, and the trend is strong. Upstream inventory is currently operating tightly, with a decrease in spot supply. The overall negotiation focus is on the upward trend. Lithium iron phosphate has certain support on the cost side, and the pressure on cost manufacturing is increasing. Lithium iron phosphate passively follows the upward trend. Downstream lithium iron phosphate has a strong willingness to purchase, and demand is still good. The replenishment atmosphere has significantly increased, and downstream demand has significantly improved. Currently, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is high, and the market supply has increased. Inventory is consumed normally, and there is sufficient spot. The overall market negotiation focus is on a high level.

In terms of demand: Currently, both the power market and energy storage market are in a rapid development stage, with a strong willingness to replenish downstream products and a rapid recovery in terminal demand. Battery companies have limited consumption of finished product inventory, and the procurement of lithium iron phosphate is mainly based on rigid demand. Currently, the potential for new energy power vehicles is enormous, and under the dual effects of policies and markets, China’s new energy vehicle industry is gradually expanding, In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. For 9 consecutive years, it has ranked first in the world. Currently, the demand for energy storage batteries is not comparable to that of power batteries. According to data statistics, in 2023, the growth rate of energy storage batteries has surpassed that of power batteries. It is expected that by 2025, in the field of power batteries, with the release of mainstream global automotive companies, lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 43% of the market share. In the field of energy storage, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to occupy 85% of the market share in the future.

In terms of new energy storage, it can be divided into traditional energy storage and new energy storage. New energy storage includes lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, and flywheel energy storage. Compared with traditional energy storage, new energy storage has the characteristics of short construction period, flexible site selection, strong regulation ability, and fast response. In 2024, the application field of new energy storage batteries will continue to expand, According to statistics, more than 30 enterprises have carried out intensive construction or signing ceremonies related to energy storage, with a planned production capacity of over 150GW. Among them, half of the new energy storage has been opened, and the investment amount is about 60 billion yuan. China’s new energy storage industry is in a rapid and large-scale development stage. In the industry’s view, the energy storage industry, especially new energy storage, is facing greater opportunities and challenges. In 2024, the energy storage industry, Ushering in new development characteristics, new energy storage has been included in the government work report for the first time, and industrial development has entered a fast lane. Many battery companies have begun to compete in new quality productivity characterized by innovation and high-quality development. Recently, many energy storage battery companies such as Yiwei Energy Storage, Desai Battery, and BYD Energy Storage have launched new products to seize the next competitive point. In order to break through the current situation of severe homogenization competition in energy storage cell products, multiple battery companies have been persistently breaking through technological innovation, exploring safer, longer lifespan, and more cost-effective differentiated products, opening up the internal competition of “new quality productivity”, continuously driving enterprise development through technological innovation, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional energy through new quality productivity.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, as of March 19th, the average price of power type lithium iron phosphate trading company is 43500 yuan/ton, and the market price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is around 42000-43000 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is still support on the demand and cost sides, and the price still maintains a strong trend in the short term. In 2023, the two major application fields of power and energy storage have grown rapidly, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power and energy storage has greatly increased. Under the promotion of policies, the production of lithium iron phosphate continues to grow. Currently, from the number of energy storage projects, the demand for lithium batteries will further increase. The lithium battery industry is currently showing a good development trend in the new energy vehicle and storage industries. Energy batteries, power batteries, etc., have relatively optimistic future demand, and lithium iron phosphate has sufficient power to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 15th, the average price of transparent grade premium PMMA in China was 16066.67 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices have shown a narrow upward trend, with a 2.12% increase compared to the same period last week. Currently, upstream prices have some support on the cost side, while downstream automotive demand is strong and manufacturer inventories are at a low level. Currently, the mainstream price of PMMA is between 16000-17000 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price trend of PMMA has risen, with a narrow upward trend being the main trend. The price has increased by 2.12% compared to the same period last week, with an increase of about 300 yuan/ton. Upstream acetone has seen a narrow upward trend, and there is still room for an increase in acetone since March. Downstream demand for power vehicles is good, downstream procurement atmosphere is positive, logistics is smooth, inventory is consumed normally, and terminals are gradually recovering. The overall trend is stable, medium, and strong.

Rubber and Plastics Index: On March 14th, the rubber and plastics index was 686 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.28% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.92% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

3、 Future Market Forecast

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that there is currently some support on the upstream cost side, coupled with good downstream demand, and it is expected that PMMA prices will remain stable, medium to strong in the short term, with prices difficult to fall. The mainstream price will remain around 16000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the statistics of Business Society, as of March 14th, the market price of hexafluoropropylene is around 35700-36750 yuan/ton. Same as at the beginning of this week.

2、 Price influencing factors:

The fluorite market at the end of the raw material market remained stable. Affected by national policies, some of the mining output decreased, the supply weakened, and the market quotation remained high.

Downstream market demand is poor, with a focus on essential procurement.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that with high upstream prices supporting and poor downstream demand, the market may maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 13, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8033 yuan/ton. Compared with March 10 (reference price of n-butanol was 7933 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26%. Compared to March 1st (reference price of n-butanol is 8383 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early March, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to decline weakly. After entering this week, the n-butanol market finally broke the downward trend and saw a slight recovery in the market. At the beginning of the week, downstream demand for n-butanol improved overall, and a slight boost in demand provided some support for the n-butanol market. During the mid week period, the n-butanol market was consolidating and operating. As of March 13th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8000-8100 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the overall supply side of n-butanol is still relatively loose. The overall support from the supply side has shown signs of improvement. After a slight boost in downstream demand, the current focus is mainly on rigid demand procurement. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust its operation narrowly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region has slightly declined this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong fell from 12350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12075 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.23%. Weekend prices increased by 30.04% year-on-year.

Upstream support is good, downstream demand is weakened

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have seen a slight decline in their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has fluctuated and risen this week, with prices rising from 6865.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7054.60 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.79%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.49% over the weekend. In the early part of the week, due to the shutdown of some upstream devices in the region, supply tightened, prices rose, and downstream buyers entered the market. In the later part of the week, prices rose to a high level, and the atmosphere of downstream entry into the market weakened. In addition, some units released propylene, which eased the tight supply situation and led to a slight decline in propylene prices.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly declined this week. The DOP price dropped from 11750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11450 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.55%, and the weekend price increased by 14.50% year-on-year. The operating rate of downstream DOP enterprises is average, and downstream procurement of isooctanol is relatively weak, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Future prospects

In mid to late March, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. But downstream DOP has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.