According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic PTA market declined slightly. On February 27, the average PTA spot market price was 5597 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous day, down 1.96% year on year.

PTA devices have been restarted successively, and the supply side has increased. At present, a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned to restart on February 28; A 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest is planned to restart on February 28; A 2.25 million ton PTA plant in Northeast China was restarted at the end of February and is currently under load increase.

In the crude oil market, the international crude oil futures closed higher on February 24, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $76.32/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures at $82.82/barrel. Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost oil prices. However, the global economic recession is expected to superimpose high oil inventories in the United States to limit the rise of oil prices.

From the downstream demand side, the terminal weaving startup rate rose, the terminal orders slightly improved, and the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased to more than 67%. However, the terminal recovery progress is slow, the follow-up of new orders is not positive, and the demand expectation has not been fulfilled.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that under the current low processing costs, it is still necessary to pay attention to the maintenance and load reduction dynamics of large factories. In addition, the rigid demand margin rebounded, but poor orders will still inhibit the sustainability of demand. With the start of the traditional peak season of “gold, silver and silver”, it is expected that demand will recover, the speed of PTA inventory accumulation will slow down, and the short-term PTA price will rise in a narrow range.

The price of DOTP rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the average price of DOTP was 9950 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the average price of 9925 yuan/ton on February 17. Cost support is limited, and the price of DOTP rose slightly this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 24, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from 9500 yuan/ton on February 17. Downstream demand is still weak. Downstream customers mostly replenish stocks on Monday and Tuesday. With the increase of replenishment, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and increased. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and adjusted this week. The cost support for DOTP is still there, and the upward momentum for DOTP price is still there.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the PTA price was 5617.27 yuan/ton, up 1.71% from the price of 5522.73 yuan/ton on February 17. Upstream raw material prices rose at a high level, PTA prices rose slightly, DOTP cost support still exists, and DOTP has a strong upward momentum in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, rose slightly this week, the price of PTA rose slightly, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material rose, the demand for DOTP remained weak, and downstream customers were on the hunt for bargains. In general, the cost support is still weak, and the demand is still weak. It is expected that the DOTP will shake and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12233 yuan/ton on February 17 and 12200 yuan/ton on February 23. Domestic caprolactam prices fell 0.27% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene was increased, and the cost support was acceptable. The spot supply in the market is reduced, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and deals are made at low prices. The market of caprolactam is mainly shaken, sorted and operated.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic price of pure benzene is 6900-7450 yuan/ton.

The price of downstream domestic PA6 market fell this week. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased steadily, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, it tends to be rigid. As of February 23, the reference price of PA6 was 14133.33 yuan/ton

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The caprolactam analyst of the Business Agency believes that the caprolactam market has been in consolidation and operation recently, and the terminal operating load has been increased, and the purchase is just needed. At present, there is no major fluctuation in the market. It is expected that caprolactam prices will be stable in the short term.

On February 21, the price of acetic anhydride dropped slightly

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride was 5250 yuan/ton on February 21, down 0.71% from the price of 5287.50 yuan/ton on February 20. The cost fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fell again on February 21.

Analysis points

The price of acetic acid fell, the price of methanol fell, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell, the start of acetic acid enterprises was stable, and the supply of acetic acid was sufficient; The sales situation of acetic anhydride is poor, the downstream just needs to purchase, the customer’s purchase intention is general, and wait-and-see is the main reason. The acetic anhydride manufacturer starts at a high level, and the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient. Acetic anhydride has great downward pressure.

Future prospects

The cost fell and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride was expected to fall in the future.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (February 20): 2769 yuan/ton

The comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly on February 20, up 13 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, from February 17, and 3.94% year-on-year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is about 1650 yuan/ton, the price has dropped by 130 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand increased. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

It is expected that the domestic urea market price will rise slightly in the future, with the average market price of about 2780 yuan/ton.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of the 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8287.5 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the price of 8237.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and down 2.50% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably. Now, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is sufficient, the delivery of phthalic anhydride is general, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile.

Cost side: o-benzene market is stable

The price trend of domestic orthobenzene is temporarily stable. As of the 17th, the price of orthobenzene was 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend is temporarily stable. The supply of orthobenzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory changes little. The stable price of orthobenzene brings some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

Demand side: DOP market has dropped sharply, mainly purchasing on demand

The downstream DOP market price continued to decline by 1.29%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9920 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream DOP price is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand for plasticizer industry is weak. The decline of DOP price has affected the low price of phthalic anhydride, but the overall price is low.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is stable in the short term, but the market of the downstream plasticizer industry continues to decline. The supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will fall in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate fell again and again this week. The average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on February 16 was 426600 yuan/ton, down 3.4% from the average price of 441600 yuan/ton on February 12. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 452600 yuan/ton on February 16, down 3.21% from the average price of 467600 yuan/ton on February 12.

From the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices continued to maintain a downward trend this week. In terms of supply, lithium carbonate production enterprises maintained steady production, and the mica smelting enterprises affected by environmental protection events in the early stage resumed production, and the new capacity climbed significantly. At present, with the warming of temperature, the output of salt lakes has increased, and the total output has increased slightly, leading to an increase in the overall supply.

In terms of demand, the overall recovery of downstream and terminal markets is slower than expected, and the load rate of some production lines remains low. In addition, the current falling price of lithium carbonate has left the industry in a wait-and-see state, and there has not been a large number of purchases. The market is mostly just in need of purchase.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market has declined, the upstream spodumene market has been in weak operation recently, the lithium carbonate price has also been falling, the market mentality is insufficient, the downstream merchants are not willing to receive goods, the actual market transactions are limited, most of them are low-price orders, the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations has declined, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream market has declined, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate has declined due to the falling price of lithium carbonate. In addition, the precursor iron phosphate enterprises generally have a large inventory, and the price fluctuates violently and continues to decline. The recovery of market demand was also less than expected, and the short-term procurement demand was low.

The lithium carbonate analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current lithium carbonate production is gradually rising, the downstream demand is weak, and the power end market still has no obvious signs of recovery. Considering the actual inventory digestion, it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price downturn will continue to fluctuate downward.

On February 14, the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 14, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11000 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from 11325 yuan/ton of aluminum fluoride on February 1; It is temporarily stable compared with 11000 yuan/ton on February 13. The cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials continued to decline, and the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable this week.

Analysis points

As of February 14, the price of fluorite was 3050 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from the price of 3156.25 yuan/ton on February 1, down 2.40% from the price of 3125 yuan/ton on February 13; As of February 14, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from 10000 yuan/ton on February 1; The price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable compared with 9828.57 yuan/ton on February 13. This week, the raw material fluorite fell sharply, the price of hydrofluoric acid was weak and temporarily stable, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Later forecast

The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, and the cost of aluminum fluoride fell. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

The domestic cobalt price fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 13, the cobalt price was 289500 yuan/ton, down 2.13% from 295800 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend; The cobalt price fell by 2.26% from 296200 yuan/ton on February 1. The demand of cobalt market is weak, the international cobalt price falls, and the domestic cobalt price falls in shock.

MB cobalt price fluctuated and fell

From the statistical table of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price fell in shock this week, and the international cobalt market fell, but the decline slowed down. The domestic cobalt market is still bearish, and the domestic cobalt price is under great pressure.

Sales of new energy vehicles declined in January

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association on the 10th, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis and 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis. According to the data released by the Passenger Transport Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 389000 in January, down 7.3% year-on-year and 48.2% month-on-month. In January, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 332000, down 6.3% year-on-year and 48.3% month-on-month. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both declined on a month-on-month basis, the demand for cobalt market declined, and the pressure on cobalt price decline increased.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the Business News Agency, believes that the international cobalt price has fallen in shock, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined. The domestic cobalt market demand is less than expected, and the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt price has increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is still optimistic, the demand growth of cobalt market is still expected, and the market volatility of cobalt market is expected to stabilize.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the average price in the domestic market was 21933.33 yuan/ton as of September, down 0.30% from last week. This week, the domestic magnesium ingot market was weak and stable, the market trading continued to be stalemate, the manufacturers were in a strong mood of stabilization, and the quotations were mostly firm, but the actual high price transaction in the market was not ideal, and the supply and demand sides still showed a cautious game.

Mentality

There are some differences in the mentality of the magnesium ingot market. Factories without inventory pressure still maintain the attitude of high prices, and the willingness to ship at low prices is not high; Some magnesium plants have weakened their support for the cost of magnesium ingots due to the lower price of raw materials, and the price has moved down.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, which is down 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. As the futures price fell below the 8000 yuan/ton threshold, the latest bidding price of some steel mills was pushed down, resulting in insufficient market confidence, and the quotations of most ferrosilicon manufacturers fell.

The price of blue charcoal in Fugu market remains weak and stable, and some enterprises are expected to reduce the price recently. In Fugu market, the current low price of medium materials is 1450-1550 yuan/ton, the high price is 1660-1700 yuan/ton, the low price of small materials is 1410-1530 yuan/ton, the high price is 1660-1700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coke surface is 1050-1200 yuan/ton, all of which include tax in cash.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the market recovered slowly after the Lantern Festival and the transaction was not ideal. The price of raw materials, such as blue coke and ferrosilicon, has fallen slightly, and the actual transaction and negotiation space of magnesium market is large. Only some enterprises are not willing to ship at a low price due to cost factors, and it is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will run weakly and steadily in the short term.