According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market fluctuated and rose in late November, with prices of some brand products increasing. As of November 28th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7621.43 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.57% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, although overall consumption has led to price fluctuations and a decline, the related geopolitical situation has suddenly become tense, and expectations for price fluctuations to rise are still high. The upstream driving force of PP in the far end is still acceptable. In terms of propylene, there has been an increase in domestic supply and the news of imported goods entering the port for fermentation. At the same time, propylene has already risen to a high level in the early stage, and buyers are becoming more cautious in their operations, resulting in price stagnation and consolidation. The upstream decline of propane has stabilized, market trading is average, and the cost of PDH production direction is stabilizing. Overall, in late November, PP raw materials were either stable or fluctuating, with average support on the cost side.

Supply side:

In late November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Earlier this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, as well as Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell, entered the plant maintenance plan in mid month. Recently, Hebei Haiwei and Lianhong Xinke production lines have undergone load reduction maintenance, reducing the overall industry load from 75% at the beginning of the month to below 68% at present. Domestic PP shipments have contracted significantly, while inventory levels have decreased by about 20000 tons to 680000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some sources of goods have experienced structural contraction. Overall, the supply side provides strong support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

In late November, the demand for PP remained stable with some weakness. Affected by seasonality, some industry enterprises have experienced a decline in production, and the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement has narrowly declined, resulting in a cooling of their willingness to hold positions; The consumption of pipes in the early stage has slightly rebounded due to the stimulus of real estate related policies, and the positive effects have gradually dissipated recently; The consumption of BOPP film enterprises is strong, and the raw material reserves of terminal enterprises are generally stable with some increase. Overall, there are narrow fluctuations in various aspects of the demand side, which are generally weak and stable.

Future forecast

In late November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and rose narrowly. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, the supply side maintenance continued to be released within the month, and there was a tight supply situation in some parts of the market. However, according to consumer feedback, industry players are cautious about future terminal consumption and are concerned about the offline production of new capacity at the end of the year. Trading on the market is average and there has been no large-scale price chasing. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stable with some increase.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On November 27th, the average market price was 7336.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the price of pure benzene in the domestic market has slightly decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. Shandong’s local refining industry has slightly lowered its prices according to the market trend, and the price of pure benzene in the East China market has also slightly declined, with average low-priced shipments in the market. At present, the decline in geopolitical risks, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, has led to a decline in international crude oil futures, affecting confidence in the pure benzene market. It is expected that the pure benzene market will remain stable and stable in the short term, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 26, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7400 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.25%.

In November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the first ten days, some units in the n-butanol plant were temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply. Coupled with downstream demand for phased stocking, the center of gravity of n-butanol gradually approached a high level under the dual support of supply and demand. On November 15th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton, with a 9.42% increase in the first half of the year.

In the later stage, the supply side equipment in the n-butanol field resumed operation and some new production capacity was put into operation. The overall supply of n-butanol in the market increased, and the support provided by the loose supply side weakened. The center of gravity of the n-butanol market began to shift downwards, and the overall price was lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton. On November 21st, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was around 7300 yuan/ton.

As the end of the month approached, the n-butanol on-site equipment encountered maintenance and parking, and the on-site supply tightened again. The daily supply of n-butanol decreased by about 1100 tons, and the tight supply side once again supported the upward trend of the market. Starting from the 22nd, the focus of the n-butanol market has been adjusted upwards again. As of November 26th, the reference price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 7400 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ November 26th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7500 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7650-7750 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7550-7650 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, although there are still production cuts and equipment under maintenance in the n-butanol field, the downstream demand for n-butanol is showing signs of weakening, with demand mainly continuing to be driven by essential purchases. In addition, after the completion of subsequent decoration and maintenance, the tight supply of n-butanol is expected to ease, and the transmission between supply and demand is expected to be weak. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will continue to have moderate upward momentum, with narrow range adjustments in the market. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market price has recently stopped falling and stabilized. As of November 22, the average market price in East China was 4832 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% from November 18.

Recently, the fundamental changes in PTA have been limited, with prices mainly driven by costs. International crude oil prices have shifted upwards due to the escalation of the conflict between a European country and Ukraine, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate, and the shift in the center of gravity of crude oil prices. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.23 per barrel.

From the perspective of its own supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory, with social inventory estimated at around 3.86 million tons. At present, 3 million tons of PTA plants in East China, including 1.5 million tons and 2.5 million tons of PTA plants, 4.5 million tons in South China, and 1.2 million tons in Northwest China, will be restarted and their load will be increased gradually. The current PTA operating rate in China is around 86%, and it will further increase in the future, with ample supply in the spot market.

The demand side polyester production is around 88%, and there are currently no plans for large-scale polyester plant maintenance or restart. Due to the seasonal off-season, it is difficult to significantly increase production in the future, and PTA is mainly driven by essential needs. The demand for the terminal textile industry is still in the traditional off-season, and market demand is expected to further weaken. There is generally a lack of confidence in the future market, and most downstream procurement attitudes may still be cautious.

Business analysts believe that due to the ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical situation in Europe, international crude oil may experience a wide range of fluctuations. The PTA maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted, and the increase in production has strengthened the expectation of loose supply. The expected start of downstream polyester production is stable, but with the end of the peak season, there is insufficient demand momentum. Overall, the pressure on supply and demand still exists, and PTA lacks upward momentum, so prices may fall.

This week (11.16-11.22), the nickel price market first rose and then fell. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 22, spot nickel was reported at 126933 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.82%. Macro emotions, geopolitical factors, and national policies have driven nickel prices to recover from the downward trend and rise, but the emotional impact has caused nickel prices to fall on the 22nd. At present, with the significant increase in ex factory prices, downstream companies are hesitant to undertake, and the market is more inclined towards low-priced sources.

Macroscopic aspect: the US general election landed, the disturbance mood dissipated, the weak US dollar boosted, the London metal market generally closed positive, the nickel price got rid of the declining trend with the trend, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, geopolitical factors stirred the market trend again, and the nickel price trend was strong. With the continuous effectiveness of existing policies, the effective implementation of incremental policies, and the continuous release of policy combination effects, the trend of China’s economic recovery and improvement is steadily strengthening, which provides favorable support for nickel prices. However, the new US government may impose high tariffs on China, and the market is concerned that the demand for Chinese metals has not decreased. On the 22nd, the upward trend of nickel prices did not continue and fell slightly.

On the supply side: The slow recovery of the foreign economy and the continuous increase in inventory, coupled with the effective implementation of domestic policies, have effectively stimulated domestic demand potential. Shanghai Nickel has been continuously destocking this week. As of November 22, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27492 tons, a decrease of 892 tons from last Friday; But the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality is 31194 tons, an increase of 722 tons from last Friday, and inventory pressure continues; On November 22nd, LME nickel inventory was 159000 tons, an increase of 4566 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side: Stainless steel first rose and then fell during the week. As of November 22, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plates was 12442.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.01%. The import volume of stainless steel has increased, while the export volume has decreased, resulting in a significant decrease in net exports; Demand has improved, destocking continues, and there is limited room for price declines.

Market forecast: The trend of economic recovery and improvement is slowly emerging, but inventory pressure and price resistance still exist. Macro and emotional factors continue to affect price trends, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 21, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7300 yuan/ton. Compared with November 15 (reference price of n-butanol was 7550 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.31%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province has started a slight decline since the beginning of this week (11.15-11.21). The focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market has shifted downwards, and the overall market price has been lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton. As of November 21st, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Causing Weakness in the Market

Supply side: Some n-butanol plants in Shandong have completed maintenance and resumed production and operation. The overall supply of n-butanol in the plant has increased, and the support provided by the supply side for n-butanol has been reduced.

On the demand side: With the increase in supply, the wait-and-see sentiment in the n-butanol market is becoming stronger, and downstream procurement and stocking are gradually becoming cautious, holding a cautious attitude towards the future trend. The transmission between supply and demand has weakened, and the support provided by the demand side to the n-butanol market has also loosened.

In terms of raw materials: This week, the overall market situation of propylene, the upstream raw material product of n-butanol, showed a weak downward trend. Therefore, the support of n-butanol from raw materials and cost has also weakened.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ November 21st

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7700-7800 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7500-7700 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is relatively light, with a wait-and-see attitude dominating the market. Demand is mainly for small orders that are just needed. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1546 yuan/ton. Compared with the soda ash price of 1536 yuan/ton on November 11th, the price has increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the soda ash market has seen a slight increase. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has decreased, and the pressure on market supply has weakened. Manufacturers are actively shipping, and downstream companies are following up on demand. In some areas, shipments have improved, leading to an increase in soda ash consumption. On site trading is still acceptable, and the soda ash market is consolidating and rising.

As of November 19th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has slightly declined. From November 11th to 19th, the price of glass increased from 16.75 yuan/square meter to 16.65 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.60%. Some production lines in the glass market have resumed production, and the market operating rate has increased. Downstream parties have followed up as needed, and overall shipments from manufacturers have slightly weakened. The market is mainly bearish, and glass prices have been narrowly lowered.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity has decreased, the inventory of spot soda ash plants has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments has eased to some extent. However, the downward trend in downstream glass prices has insufficient support for the soda ash market demand, and market transactions may weaken. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a low level in mid November, with most spot prices of various brands stabilizing slightly and falling slightly. As of November 19th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15883.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.73% compared to early November.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has slightly decreased, and companies such as Jiaxing Emperor have gradually entered maintenance. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from 79.3% in the first half of the year to around 77%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The pattern of loose supply in the middle of the month has not changed, and it is difficult to see good news on the supply side. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and the factory pricing is stuck at a low level. At the same time, there is a mutual occurrence of future maintenance and resumption of work, and there is a drag on PC prices on the market supply side.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A remained generally flat in mid November. Although the supply has shrunk due to the maintenance of some enterprises within the range, the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks are average. In addition, the direct raw materials phenol and acetone may have weak market conditions or consolidation, which weakens the cost support for bisphenol A. Overall, bisphenol A has not shown any improvement in its support for PC cost.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend continues from the previous weak trend, with the logic of weak and rigid demand in the market. Industry players tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, while downstream factories purchase goods to maintain production. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The overall inventory in China is high, and it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market in mid November was generally weak in consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market remained low and sideways, with overall weak support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants has slightly decreased within ten days, and the restart and maintenance in the short term are basically the same, with high supply. The downstream weak rigid demand stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Although PC prices have fallen below the annual low, the profound mismatch between supply and demand cannot be alleviated in the short term. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the PC market may still show signs of fatigue in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 1, 2024, the reference price of n-propanol in the domestic market was 8966 yuan/ton. On November 19 (reference price of n-propanol was 11300 yuan/ton), the price increased by 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.02%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from November to present (11.1-11.19), the domestic n-propanol market has experienced a “sharp rise” in the market. At the beginning of the month, the reference price of n-propanol in the market was around 9000 yuan/ton. With the increase of n-propanol shipment prices by major factories in Shandong, the n-propanol market trend began to rise with the pace of major factories. In the middle of the month, n-propanol broke the 10000 yuan mark, and then factories in Shandong and Nanjing continuously raised the price of n-propanol. The n-propanol market saw a broad rise, and the market center continued to climb to high levels, approaching the 11000 yuan mark. As of November 19th, the reference market price for n-propanol in Shandong region is around 10900-11500 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for n-propanol in Nanjing region is around 118000-12000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Support Factors

In terms of supply: As we enter November, the overall production of n-propanol in China has decreased, and the supply of n-propanol in the market has decreased. Compared with the previous period, the overall market supply is tight, the supply pressure has eased, and spot circulation is tight. The supply side supports the continued upward operation of the market.

In terms of demand: The downstream demand side of n-propanol has performed well, and the demand side has improved, with smooth supply and demand transmission. N-propanol is mainly used for the production of n-propyl acetate, accounting for about 65% of the market demand. At present, the downstream production capacity of n-propyl acetate is continuously expanding, which has significantly boosted the demand for raw material n-propanol. Recently, the downstream n-propyl acetate market has been on the rise, and the destocking performance of n-propyl acetate is good. The growth in demand for n-propyl acetate has strongly driven the market demand for n-propanol.

Prediction of the future trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol in the market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is good. As the market rises to a high point within the year, downstream users are slightly cautious and mainly purchase according to demand. However, the overall transmission balance between supply and demand in the market. The n-propanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate steadily at a high level, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 8th to 15th, 2024. On November 8th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% during the period. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low. The demand for the chemical industry in Shandong is still acceptable, but the purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high. The overall downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China is high, and refineries are actively shipping. Overall, the supply and demand mentality in the toluene market is strong, and the market trend is weak.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI’s December crude oil futures were reported at $67.02 per barrel, a 4.77% decline for the week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 15th, East China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5550-5600 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 11th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 14th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market fell by $7/ton, with closing prices of $786-788/ton FOB Korea and $811-813/ton CFR China, a decrease of $23/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the future.