According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 8th to 15th, 2024. On November 8th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% during the period. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low. The demand for the chemical industry in Shandong is still acceptable, but the purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high. The overall downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China is high, and refineries are actively shipping. Overall, the supply and demand mentality in the toluene market is strong, and the market trend is weak.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI’s December crude oil futures were reported at $67.02 per barrel, a 4.77% decline for the week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 15th, East China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5550-5600 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 11th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 14th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market fell by $7/ton, with closing prices of $786-788/ton FOB Korea and $811-813/ton CFR China, a decrease of $23/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the future.