Monthly Archives: June 2020

Tight supply, rising market price of acetic acid

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been steadily rising. As of June 29, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2236 yuan / ton, 3.23% higher than that on June 9, 2166 yuan / ton, and 9.32% lower than that of the same period last month. At present, there are 2200-2300 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2150-2250 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2250-2350 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2000-2100 yuan / ton in Henan, 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Hebei and 1880-1930 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

 

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Production performance of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Yankuang Guotai 110 has a daily output of about 3000 tons

Hualu Hengsheng 50 has a daily output of about 1500 tons

Yangzi BP 50 has a daily output of about 1300 tons

Celanese 120 parking on June 17

Jiangsu Sopu 120 has a daily output of about 3000 tons

Jiantao, Hebei Province, has a daily output of about 1500 tons

Tianjin Bohua 35 has a daily output of about 1000 tons

Henan Shunda 40 has a daily output of about 1200 tons

Henan Longyu 50 has a daily output of about 1100 tons

Henan Yima 25 parking

About 1000 tons per day in Shaanxi Province

Shanghai Huayi 70 is being restarted

Anhui Huayi 50 has a daily output of about 1300 tons

Dalian Hengli 35

At present, the domestic acetic acid market is rising steadily, with little increase. Affected by the slow load raising of Huayi plant in Shanghai, the spot supply in East China is tight, and the inventory of enterprises has decreased significantly; the price of acetic acid in North and central China is mostly stable, and affected by the acetic acid price in East China, it remains firm in a short period of time. The downstream market mainly digests the long-term contract, and the purchase of acetic acid is just needed, and the market transaction situation is flat.

 

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In the upstream market, the methanol market tends to be stable after a small rise, and the transaction volume in the industry is light. The market is in a wait-and-see situation after the festival, with about 1645 yuan / ton at present. On the other hand, the downstream industries such as vinyl acetate and acetate were affected by the cost side support, and the prices rose steadily. After the festival, enterprises’ shipment was smooth, but the downstream market demand was limited, and the support was flat in the long run.

 

The acetic acid analysts of the business society believe that although the early maintenance enterprises have resumed production, but the products are more supplied to long-term customers, and the acetic acid spot is still tense in a short time, but the demand support of the downstream market is limited. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong in a short time, and the price increase will be limited.

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In June, the price of acetic anhydride fell with the price of acetic acid

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell in June, and the market of acetic anhydride fell with the market of acetic acid. As of June 28, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 5300.00 yuan / ton, down 14.52% compared with 6200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 4.61% compared with the same period last year.

 

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Specific index of acetic acid acetic anhydride:

 
On June 28, the commodity price ratio index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride was 90.89, which was the same as yesterday, 35.85% lower than the highest point 141.68 (June 5, 2018), and 30.33% higher than the lowest point 69.74 on August 4, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2015-01-01 till now). In the near future, the price index of acetic anhydride and acetic acid is relatively stable, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is insufficient. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will maintain stability in the future.

 

Price trend of acetic acid acetic anhydride:

 

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It can be seen from the price trend of acetic acid that the price of acetic anhydride fell with the price trend of acetic acid in June. Since the end of June, the acetic acid market has been stable, and the negative effect on acetic anhydride market has weakened.

 

Market Overview:

 

Generally speaking, the price of acetic acid fell in June, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride fell in shock, which was bad for the market of acetic anhydride, but since the late ten days, the decline of acetic acid slowed down and the bad for acetic anhydride weakened. The lower operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises and the basic stable procurement in the downstream make the market of acetic anhydride in the future have a certain upward momentum, and it is expected that the market of acetic anhydride in the future will be strong and stable.

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The price of viscose fell slightly

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 24, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 9500 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan / ton, or 0.30%, or 17.03% year-on-year. Cotton linter prices continue to rise, viscose manufacturers said that the market price has no market, part of the long-term production, high inventory prices. The actual market quotation is slightly lower, and the main quotation range is 8400-9600 yuan / ton.

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Last week, the supply of cotton linter was general, and some manufacturers raised the price of cotton linter to reduce the loss, with obvious intention of inflation. However, the demand of downstream chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants is difficult to support, the overall rise is limited, and most of them remain stable. Considering that it is still a long time for new cotton linter to go on the market, it is expected that cotton linter will still maintain stability, supply and demand are still the focus of the industry, and the difference of regional demand will also lead to quotation changes.

 
On June 24, the commodity price ratio index of viscose staple fiber and human cotton yarn was 96.40, which was the same as yesterday, 3.96% lower than the highest point of 100.38 (2019-07-21) in the cycle, and 13.51% higher than the lowest point of 84.93 on January 5, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-01-01 till now)

 

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The price of human cotton yarn generally fell. As of June 24, the average ex factory price of 30s cotton yarn in Shandong was 13867 yuan / ton, down 0.48% compared with the price in the first ten days of June, down 19.85% year on year. There are few orders for human cotton yarn, the price of upstream raw materials remains firm, and there is a situation of production suspension. The depressed market makes viscose manufacturers tired of price adjustment, after all, there is no market for price. Some people’s cotton yarn manufacturers have broken down in their attitude of sticking to the price, and their prices have been continuously reduced by more than 1000 yuan / ton. The market quotation range is 12600-15000 yuan / ton.

 

Business analysts believe that although cotton linter has strong willingness to hold up the price, due to the shipping pressure, viscose has a downward trend, the price of cotton yarn for high price people has dropped, while the price of cotton yarn for low price people is mainly stable, and it is expected that the price of cotton yarn for people will fluctuate and fall.

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International cobalt price falls drag down domestic cobalt price

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent cobalt market is not good, and the price of cobalt has dropped sharply. As of June 23, the price of cobalt was 247000.00 yuan / ton, down 3.39% compared with 255666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; after June 11, the price of cobalt fell continuously, down 3.77% compared with 256666.67 yuan / ton on June 23. Cobalt prices have fallen sharply in the near future.

 

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International cobalt Market

 

According to LME market data, since the middle of June, the international cobalt market has fallen and the price of cobalt has fallen sharply. The price of cobalt on June 22 was US $28850 / ton, down 650 / ton from US $29500 / ton on June 11. International cobalt prices fell sharply, dragging down domestic cobalt market.

 

Time, category, specification, lowest price, up and down, highest price, up and down unit

June 22 standard cobalt 14.15 0 14.75 0 USD / lb

June 22 alloy grade cobalt 14.15 0 14.75 0 USD / lb

June 19 standard cobalt 14.15-0.35 14.75-0.15 USD / lb

June 19 alloy cobalt 14.15-0.35 14.75-0.25 USD / lb

June 18 standard grade cobalt 14.5 0 14.9 0 USD / lb

June 18 alloy grade cobalt 14.5 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 17 standard cobalt 14.5-0.1 14.9-0.1 USD / lb

June 17 alloy cobalt 14.5-0.1150 USD / lb

June 16 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 16 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 15 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 15 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 12 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 12 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 11 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 11 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

As can be seen from the table, since the middle of June, the price of cobalt has fallen in shock, and the price of MB has fallen sharply since the 17th. International cobalt market fell sharply, negative for domestic cobalt price.

 

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Domestic cobalt market volume

 

Date, variety, delivery volume, inventory unit

1023 tons of cobalt 2020-6-23

7 993 tons of cobalt 2020-6-22

2020-6-19 cobalt 11 980 tons

1 969 tons of cobalt 2020-6-18

2020-6-17 cobalt 1.5 956.5 tons

2020-6-16 cobalt 5.25 958.75 tons

2020-6-15 cobalt 1 949.75 tons

2020-6-12 cobalt 17 932.25 tons

2020-6-11 cobalt 11.25 912.5 tons

2020-6-10 cobalt 10 906.5 tons

From the trading situation of cobalt in Wuxi stainless steel market, since the middle of June, the trading volume of cobalt in Wuxi market has increased, and the stock of cobalt has increased substantially. As a whole, the stock of domestic cobalt market has increased, and the trading volume is average. The supply of domestic cobalt market is stable and the transaction is average. Cobalt market fell under pressure.

 

Market Overview

 

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that the international cobalt market is low and the international cobalt price is fluctuating and falling, which is bad for the domestic cobalt market. The stock of domestic cobalt market increased greatly, the transaction was general, and the overall international cobalt market fell sharply, dragging down the cobalt market. Cobalt market is weak, but there is limited space for cobalt price to fall. Cobalt price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

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This week’s tin market price mainly fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.49% (6.15-6.19)

The spot tin market price of this week (6.15-6.19) is mainly volatile. The average price in the domestic market is 138737.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 139412.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.49%.

 

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On June 21, the tin commodity index was 71.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.16% from the highest point of 100.25 in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 65.70% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

In terms of futures, the overall volatility of Lunxi fell this week. After falling to the lowest point of this week at the beginning of this week, it bottomed out and rebounded. From Tuesday to Friday, the volatility was dominant, with a weekly decline of 1.09%. 892 transactions were completed, 17680 positions were held, 1583 positions were reduced. The Shanghai tin 2008 contract was first restrained and then increased this week. At the beginning of this week, the domestic situation affected the price at the beginning of this week. Since Tuesday, driven by the metal market, the price rose by 0.27% weekly, with 215000 transactions and 31313 positions.

 

This week, the domestic spot market followed the trend of Shanghai tin market and then rose. On Monday, the price followed the downward trend of futures market. Some traders purchased, and the market was in good trading. Since Tuesday, the price has been rising continuously, and the downstream is mainly watching. There is a resistance to the high price. The market trading was slightly cold. As of Friday, the market price was 138000-140500 yuan / ton, up about 300 yuan / ton from last week.

 

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According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 24th week of 2020 (6.15-6.19), there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are zinc (3.04%), lead (2.66%) and nickel (1.89%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling are praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 1.73%), neodymium metal (- 1.20%) and silicon metal (- 1.09%). This week’s average was 0.12%. This week, the metal market was the main player in general, and all countries released favorable policies to stimulate the economy. The domestic futures market was boosted upward. This week, the zinc and lead markets performed more prominently, while the tin market was relatively stable.

 

The business club predicts that the Long Dragon Boat Festival holiday in China will be seen next week, the trading day will be shortened, and there will be some demand for goods preparation before the festival. There are many favorable factors in the basic form of the metal market. As the downstream demand is weak, and the willingness of traders to receive goods is not strong, it is expected that Shanghai and Wuxi will operate weakly in the next week.

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otassium sulphate market is stable temporarily and demand is weak

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

 

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According to the data of the business agency, the potassium sulfate Market is stable this week. Mannheim potassium sulfate: About 2550% powder; about 2650% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 52% powder 2450; Qinghai 50% powder 2250-2300. Potassium sulfate Market is relatively stable, local low-end prices rebounded. The operation rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate in the southwest market is stable at about 85%, and the sales of each factory is in good condition. Some factories receive orders at a low price very well. The order plan has been arranged to the middle of July, so it has increased slightly. The price in the Northwest market is still at a low level, and the factory is fully open to meet the market demand, and the supply is a little tight. However, due to the competition of potassium sulfate in the water salt system, the price cannot be increased temporarily. The price of potassium sulphate in Qinghai water salt system is stable for the time being, and the sales are average. The upstream market of potassium chloride continued to decline, while the downstream purchase of small single compound fertilizer, with general demand.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, although the market of potassium fertilizer is low, the manufacturers of potassium sulphate are not under great pressure, the market is sufficient, and there will be a stable period of potassium sulphate in the short term.

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Yarn demand rises slowly in low season

1、 Price trend

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 18, the spot price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber and 32S polyester yarn in Shandong Province ran smoothly compared with yesterday. The average price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber in the national market was about 6670 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up about 0.6% compared with the beginning of June; the average price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong market was about 13260 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up about 1.53% compared with June.

 

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2、 Factors affecting prices

 

From the upstream fundamentals, as of June 15, the domestic PTA social inventory has reached about 3.55 million tons, with a decrease of nearly 90000 tons compared with the end of May; the glycol social inventory is about 1.334 million tons, which is a new high inventory in the year. Due to the serious accumulation in the early stage, the trend of high inventory will continue in the short term, and PTA and glycol are expected to remain weak in the short term. In addition, some polyester plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with a total capacity of about 1.55 million tons. Shenghong and hengliheng are expected to be put into production in June, and the short-term PTA and glycol accumulation situation is hard to change.

 

According to customs data, from January to may 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports totaled US $96.16 billion, down 1.17% year on year. Since the middle of May, overseas orders have gradually recovered. According to downstream enterprises, although the situation of export orders has improved, the prospect is not clear. Because the demand for overseas export orders is not as expected, domestic demand has been slowly rising, domestic demand digestion is limited, and prices are low Only supported by the cost side, there is no other positive upward mobility, and the expectation of businesses is generally low.

 

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Summer is coming, facing the traditional textile off-season. According to some downstream businesses, 1.4d polyester staple fiber has fallen this week. The spot price is 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The spot price of 32S polyester yarn rises and falls with each other. Due to the support of the raw material end, some businesses still choose to ship at a stable price. At present, the number of orders received by enterprises is seriously insufficient, and the connection of overseas orders is difficult. In order to avoid the pressure of stock accumulation, some textile enterprises in Zhejiang have issued the notice of suspension of production and holiday. Due to the imbalance of supply and demand, the downstream shipment is difficult, the market panic spreads, and the trading atmosphere is seriously insufficient.

 

In terms of futures, Zheng Mian’s main contract rebounded in shock driven by the rise of US stocks and US oil, and finally closed at 19280 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton or 0.47% compared with the previous trading day.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the overseas situation is not clear, foreign trade orders are difficult to continue, facing the summer off-season, domestic demand release is insufficient, facing the upstream PTA, glycol and other raw materials accumulation situation, polyester short and yarn prices are still difficult to rise in the short term, and it is expected that prices will be weak in the short term.

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Raw materials fall, Shandong formaldehyde market price falls

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 16th was 873.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 17th was 860.00 yuan / ton, down 1.53%. The current price is down 1.90% month on month, and the current price is down 25.00% year on year.

 

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Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of June 17, the main factory quotation in Hebei is about 760 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 795 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 945 yuan / ton. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons, formaldehyde content of 37% and a load of 50%. Recently, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province has declined. The start-up of formaldehyde enterprises has been basically stable. The market supply is relatively sufficient. The on-site trading atmosphere is weak, and the formaldehyde market has declined.

 

Upstream methanol situation: Recently, the raw methanol started to decline from last Friday, with more wait-and-see orders, and the actual single transaction was light. With the inflow of port goods, the increase of inventory and the increasingly fierce market competition, formaldehyde cost cannot be supported.

 

The downstream wood board has entered the traditional off-season, the terminal demand continues to shrink, the market trading atmosphere is cold and clear, the formaldehyde enterprise shipping is difficult, and the market continues to decline.

 

Recently, the price of methanol in the upper reaches of the river has been weak, and the cost side is not well supported. Formaldehyde enterprises are under pressure. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the price of formaldehyde in China will fall mainly in the near future.

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The price of hydrofluoric acid is easy to fall and hard to rise

It can be seen from the price trend chart of hydrofluoric acid monitored by the business agency that the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has fallen sharply since the end of March, for two consecutive months. On March 28, the price was 11520 yuan / ton, down to 8580 yuan / ton on May 28, down 25.52% in two months. Since the end of May, the price has increased slightly. As of June 16, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 8800 yuan / ton, 2.56% higher than the price at the end of May. The pressure of hydrofluoric acid market price increase is great.

 

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Since June, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China has seen a slight increase. The most favorable factor is that the price of raw material fluorite has risen. The price of domestic fluorite has risen since late May. As of June 16, the price of domestic fluorite was 2744.44 yuan / ton, up 6.47%. The rising price of upstream raw material has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market higher. However, the demand of downstream hydrofluoric acid is poor, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid market is poor Purchasing is not active, and the market of hydrofluoric acid is under heavy pressure. Manufacturers report that raw materials are rising but the demand is not good, so it is difficult to support hydrofluoric acid in the “crack”.

 

The price increase of domestic fluorine chemical products since May 20 is as follows:

 

Product rise and fall on May 20, June 16 unit: yuan / ton

Fluorite 2577.78 2744.44 6.47% yuan / ton

Hydrofluoric acid 8780 8800 0.23% yuan / ton

R22 15500 15600 0.65% yuan / ton

R134a 21333.33 18333.33-14.06% yuan / ton

 

It can be clearly seen that the rise of raw material fluorite is large, but the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good, the price purchase of hydrofluoric acid market is not active, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is easy to fall and difficult to rise, and the hydrofluoric acid market is difficult to support.

 

First of all, the market price of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, has increased by 6.47% since late May. During this period, the supply of domestic fluorite is tight, and fluorite merchants are reluctant to sell fluorite. The price of fluorite keeps rising. Although the rising price of raw material brings certain benefits to the hydrofluoric acid market, the price of hydrofluoric acid market has only increased by 0.23% during this period, and the increase range has dropped obviously Later in fluorite market.

 

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Secondly, affected by public health events, the domestic refrigerant industry demand is poor. On the one hand, the domestic demand is not good, the refrigerant industry starts to maintain less than 30%, which is not good for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand. On the other hand, the recent export of refrigerants has been limited to a certain extent. The overseas epidemic is serious, and the export of refrigerants has declined sharply, resulting in low prices in the domestic refrigerant industry. As of the 16th, the price of domestic R22 products is 15600 yuan / ton, and R134a products is 18333.33 yuan / ton. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry has been in a downturn, the market price of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has been depressed, foreign special events have been serious, the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, in addition to the low start of domestic air conditioning industry, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. As a whole, domestic and foreign demand are not as expected. The price of refrigerants dropped sharply. In addition, the purchase of downstream industries was not active, the demand was poor, the price of refrigerants was low, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market was difficult to rise due to the negative influence.

 

Finally, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid field device operation is stable, and the supply of goods in the hydrofluoric acid market is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 8500-9000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has remained low, and some manufacturers have reported serious losses. The hydrofluoric acid market is squeezed by upstream and downstream, so the market price is easy to fall and hard to rise.

 

Generally speaking, there is still a strong price intention in fluorite market in the near future, but there is no obvious improvement in refrigerant industry. For hydrofluoric acid market, on-demand purchase is the main thing. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business agency, thinks that there is a great pressure on the price of hydrofluoric acid market, and later prices may remain volatile.

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The demand of melamine market is flat

1、 Melamine price trend:

 

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

Melamine market has been stable in recent years. According to the data of monitoring samples from business associations, as of June 15, the average price of melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of June 1, and decreased by 1.30% compared with that of April 15.

 

Supply and demand: at present, when some enterprises shut down for maintenance, the start-up rate of melamine has declined, and the supply side has shrunk, but the downstream demand is still not enough. In addition, due to the weather in some areas, the digestion capacity of melamine sources is limited.

 

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Raw urea: according to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly (6.8-6.12) this week, and the quotation rose from 1656.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1680.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.41%, down 11.89% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 78.14 on June 12. At present, agricultural demand has declined slightly, and the downstream industry has general enthusiasm for urea procurement. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Melamine analysts of the business club believe that the recent slight rise in the price of raw urea has limited support for the cost of melamine, and the current supply has been reduced, but the downstream demand power is insufficient. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly stable in the short term.

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