1、 Price trend

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 18, the spot price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber and 32S polyester yarn in Shandong Province ran smoothly compared with yesterday. The average price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber in the national market was about 6670 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up about 0.6% compared with the beginning of June; the average price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong market was about 13260 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up about 1.53% compared with June.

2、 Factors affecting prices

From the upstream fundamentals, as of June 15, the domestic PTA social inventory has reached about 3.55 million tons, with a decrease of nearly 90000 tons compared with the end of May; the glycol social inventory is about 1.334 million tons, which is a new high inventory in the year. Due to the serious accumulation in the early stage, the trend of high inventory will continue in the short term, and PTA and glycol are expected to remain weak in the short term. In addition, some polyester plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with a total capacity of about 1.55 million tons. Shenghong and hengliheng are expected to be put into production in June, and the short-term PTA and glycol accumulation situation is hard to change.

According to customs data, from January to may 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports totaled US $96.16 billion, down 1.17% year on year. Since the middle of May, overseas orders have gradually recovered. According to downstream enterprises, although the situation of export orders has improved, the prospect is not clear. Because the demand for overseas export orders is not as expected, domestic demand has been slowly rising, domestic demand digestion is limited, and prices are low Only supported by the cost side, there is no other positive upward mobility, and the expectation of businesses is generally low.

Summer is coming, facing the traditional textile off-season. According to some downstream businesses, 1.4d polyester staple fiber has fallen this week. The spot price is 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The spot price of 32S polyester yarn rises and falls with each other. Due to the support of the raw material end, some businesses still choose to ship at a stable price. At present, the number of orders received by enterprises is seriously insufficient, and the connection of overseas orders is difficult. In order to avoid the pressure of stock accumulation, some textile enterprises in Zhejiang have issued the notice of suspension of production and holiday. Due to the imbalance of supply and demand, the downstream shipment is difficult, the market panic spreads, and the trading atmosphere is seriously insufficient.

In terms of futures, Zheng Mian’s main contract rebounded in shock driven by the rise of US stocks and US oil, and finally closed at 19280 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton or 0.47% compared with the previous trading day.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the overseas situation is not clear, foreign trade orders are difficult to continue, facing the summer off-season, domestic demand release is insufficient, facing the upstream PTA, glycol and other raw materials accumulation situation, polyester short and yarn prices are still difficult to rise in the short term, and it is expected that prices will be weak in the short term.