Silicon price in May

In May 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) was strong. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13991.67 yuan / ton on May 28, up 7.49% compared with the average market price of 13641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1). The increase was mainly in the first ten days of May, and the price of silicon metal (441) remained stable in the second half of the month.

The price of 441 ᦇ silicon in different regions on the 28th is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13900-13900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

Operation situation of three major downstream of silicon metal

Strong operation of downstream polysilicon

In May, the polysilicon market continued to rise. Domestic polysilicon prices continue to rise, domestic manufacturers and import prices remain high.

On the supply side, in May, two large factories in Xinjiang overhauled some polysilicon equipment, and a company in Inner Mongolia reduced the production load, which affected part of the output, resulting in a relatively tight supply in the whole may. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, the price of single crystal rises more strongly, and the price of long-term orders is locked, but the price of loose orders is generally high, further pushing up the expectation of silicon material rise. The price of domestic products is generally close to the 100000 mark, and the price of imported polysilicon continues to rise. The average transaction price exceeds US $23 / kg, and there are scattered offers to US $24 / kg.

On the demand side, as the prices of upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry continue to rise, the downstream battery manufacturers are in the dilemma of shrinking profits and even losing money, and the prices of downstream battery wafers are forced to rise, but the price rise is faced with no market and slowing down demand. In addition, on May 15, it was reported that India launched an anti-dumping investigation on photovoltaic modules produced in China and other regions, This may affect later export orders, and some overseas orders have been delayed or cancelled.

At present, the polysilicon market is still affected by the shortage of goods, and the price is mainly upward. Considering the current high point, the upward range and power may slow down.

Lower DMC consolidation

In May, the price of downstream silicone DMC was weak. In the first ten days of May, the domestic market of silicone DMC went down sharply. In the middle and late May, from the 17th, affected by the environmental protection policy, the operation rate of the monomer plant decreased, the market supply inventory was tight, and the downstream replenishment was in succession. The market delivery and investment warmed up somewhat, and the sealing phenomenon increased. A monomer plant in Shandong took the lead in increasing the factory quotation of silicone DMC. At the end of the month, the overall market trend tends to be cautious and wait-and-see, but the operating rate of silicone DMC plant may increase slightly, the overall is still low, and the inventory pressure of the plant is small. In the short term, silicone DMC market will maintain stable operation.

Downstream aluminum alloy

In May, the price of aluminum ingots retreated sharply, but it is still at a record high.

High raw materials, aluminum alloy prices are still relatively high.

Future forecast

Metal silicon is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. In the near future, it is greatly affected by Yunnan’s policy. The supply is tight, and the social inventory continues to move down. It is expected that in the near future, metal silicon will mainly maintain stability and operate more strongly. In the later stage, we will continue to focus on the influence of environmental protection policy factors and the average price of social production costs on the supply side.

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable as a whole this month, with the ex factory price of 7700 yuan / ton.

Commodity “upstream hot, downstream cold” phenomenon has continued for a long time. As of today, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1025 US dollars / ton, down 80 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of this month, down 7.24%. Based on the current external price, the profit of ethylene oxide is around 300 yuan, the price of ethylene continues to decline, the support of cost side is weakened, and the room for ethylene oxide to decline is obvious. The decline of ethylene price caused the mood fluctuation of the industry, the weak market in the downstream continued, the monomer price remained stable, especially the recent rumors of ethylene oxide price reduction intensified, and the market was full of wait-and-see atmosphere. Due to the impact of new production capacity and the expected arrival of goods in June, the market of related product ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level, which could not effectively support the regulation of ethylene oxide supply side.

At present, it is temporarily stable. If ethylene price continues to weaken, ethylene oxide may be reduced accordingly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic caprolactam price was stable on May 27. On May 27, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13950 yuan / ton, down 0.36% compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

2、 Market analysis

As of May 27, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14600 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14400 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14400 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14400 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 13500 yuan / T, the production capacity of the factory is 300000 tons, and the plant is in normal production.

The price of local refining pure benzene is low, and the shipment is good. The market is watching Sinopec’s price guidance. Today, the price of pure benzene is 7500-7900 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the caprolactam market is weak under the dual pressure due to the decline of raw material pure benzene and insufficient downstream demand. It is expected that caprolactam market will be weak and stable in the short term.

Commodity index: on May 25, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.43, down 0.36 points from yesterday, down 15.59% from 107.13 points (May 8, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 9.10% from 82.89 points, the lowest point on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data show that since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province will resume production after the year. In the following January, due to the sharp rise in the cost of acrylonitrile, the market of polyacrylamide has gone up all the way, with an upward range of more than 10% to 10%; There was a slight correction at the end of March, with the range falling to less than 10%. In the first and middle of April, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan continued to stop production due to the environmental protection inspection started in the middle of March, and experienced the repeated stop production and resumption of production intermittently. Finally, they officially resumed production in the last ten days of April, and the market showed a slight upward trend. In May, affected by the change of raw material cost and price, the domestic cationic price of polyacrylamide (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) was 15433.33 yuan / ton on the first day, and it was reduced to 14800 yuan / ton on the 25th day. So far this month, it has shown a downward trend, with a range of about 4.1%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and the shortage of supply, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest point in recent five years: on February 18, the mainstream quotation was 12100 yuan / ton, and on March 10, the daily quotation was 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; However, from the middle of March, affected by the lower upstream price, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco reduced its price by 300 yuan / ton to about 16000 yuan / ton; In April, the domestic mainstream market price continued to decline, and stabilized at about 14400 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a downward rate of 10%. In May, after the end of the May Day holiday, there was a short-term slight upward probe, and then a continuous downward shock. It was not until the 25th that there was a rebound of about 150 yuan / ton. The current market mainstream quotation is about 14100-14150 yuan / ton.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. Since May, the LPG market has experienced twists and turns, with an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on the 5th was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on the 25th was 4223.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, during the period, the highest price was 4306.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4150 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 3.64%.

Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after the year, from the middle of February to the middle of March, the price of upstream raw materials has increased significantly, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost of polyacrylamide. As a downstream product, polyacrylamide has increased, resulting in a substantial increase in the procurement cost of downstream enterprises. In the early years after, the water treatment project has not yet recovered, and the demand is weak, so the market of polyacrylamide is not good. During the shutdown period from mid March to mid April, although the inventory is consumed, the demand does not change much; The demand in April is still tepid, and the market change of Polyacrylamide in that month is affected by the inventory of each factory when the production is stopped. Since May, there has been no effective change in demand. Under the condition of normal production and sufficient inventory, combined with the impact of raw material acrylonitrile price, the market of polyacrylamide is in a downward trend.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the market of polyacrylamide is mainly affected by the price of raw material acrylonitrile under the condition of general downstream demand, normal production and sufficient inventory. In the short term, the price of acrylonitrile remained stable after a slight correction, and the market of polyacrylamide did not change much.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 24, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 6816.67 yuan / ton, the PET bottle chip market was weak, the mainstream quotation range was 6800-6900 yuan / ton, the raw material side was weak, and the cost support was general.

Pet market price is weak and stable, cost side support is weak, wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, transaction atmosphere is flat, demand is low, follow-up strength is insufficient, inventory is general, factory continues stable trend, downstream demand is insufficient, new order transaction quantity is limited, purchasing atmosphere is flat, and weak operation will be maintained in the short term.

The upstream PTA entered the off-season, the transaction atmosphere was flat, the inventory was on the high side, the overall may was mainly de inventory, and the short-term trend was narrow. PTA commodity index: on May 23, the PTA commodity index was 45.08, flat with yesterday, down 56.62% from the highest point of 103.92 (2011-09-15) in the cycle, and up 49.82% from the lowest point of 30.09 on April 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Business community pet analysts believe that: demand power is insufficient, cost support is poor, and the trend of weak stability will continue in the short term（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of May 24, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 10200 yuan / ton, down 5.85% compared with last Friday, up 0.66% compared with April 24, and down 2.55% year on year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market of acrylic acid was weak, and the market price of acrylic acid decreased on May 24. At present, the price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, the actual cost support is still limited, the market inquiry atmosphere is flat, the transaction is general, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream propylene, May 24, Shandong propylene market prices rose slightly. According to the price chart of the business association, the propylene price in Shandong continued to rise in the first ten days of April, fell sharply in the last ten days, and remained stable at the end of the month. During May Day, the first two days continued to be stable, with a daily rise of about 50 yuan / ton from the 3rd to the 7th. The price was mainly stable on the 9th, and stabilized again after a small rise on the 13th. On the 17th, the price began to decline at 50 yuan / ton per day, and on the 19th and 20th, it fell by about 100 yuan / ton respectively. The price of propylene rose from Sunday (23rd) and continued to rise at 50 yuan / ton today, The current market turnover is between 8100 ~ 8300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8100 yuan / ton.

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the price of raw material propylene has risen slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, and the demand side’s gas buying performance is general. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the rise and fall of raw materials.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of ethylene external market has fallen in recent years, with the price of USD 1175.25/t on May 20, the average price of ethylene on May 21 being 1163.25 USD / T, down 1.02%, and the current price is down 2.06% on a month basis, and the current price is up 119.38% year on year.

Recently, the external market of ethylene market overall showed a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell as of the 20th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $1073-1079 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $1018-1024 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fell in a volatile manner, as of the 20th, FD northwest Europe closed at $1261-1272 / T and CIF NW Europe closed at $1284-1293 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.

International: on May 20, international oil prices continued to fall, which has fallen for three consecutive days. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States reported $61.94/barrel, down $1.41 or 2.2%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $65.11 / barrel, down $1.55 or 2.3%, mainly due to the new progress made in the US Iraq nuclear negotiations, the market supply is expected to increase significantly, and the epidemic in India has hindered the pace of demand recovery.

Recently, the styrene market has been weak. Crude oil fell, while pure benzene and ethylene fell. Styrene fell in the night market, which was a negative factor in opening day. Although domestic styrene supply has increased, the stock of the spot terminal is low, the spot supply is tight. In the downstream, the three downstream prices are stable temporarily, and the demand is still low. However, the profit of the factory has improved, the demand for purchasing is increasing and the market is short of gas. In summary, the styrene cost is well supported. In the short term, the wharf continues to go to the warehouse and the inventory low level is maintained, the circulating trade volume is small, and the downstream demand is temporarily stable. It is expected that the short-term styrene market is still in the period of shock consolidation after rapid high and falling.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in terms of crude oil: the market is optimistic that Iran may increase crude oil production significantly in the fourth quarter, and the oil price is on the downward trend and the cost support is not good, so the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will be mainly lower next.

Acetic anhydride price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized this week. On May 21, the price of acetic anhydride was 11766.67 yuan / ton, down 233.33 yuan / ton or 1.94% compared with 12000.00 yuan / ton on May 16 last weekend. The market of acetic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized, showing a rising trend.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell by 4.15% this week. However, with the advent of acetic acid maintenance season, the future price of acetic acid has the power to rise, the future cost of acetic acid is expected to rise, and the future price of acetic acid has the power to rise.

Statistics of maintenance plan for acetic acid enterprises

manufacturing enterprise Capacity / 10000 tons repair time cycle

Great wall energy forty May 20th 15 days

Henan Longyu fifty June 10th 30-40 days

Shandong Yankuang forty-five Early June 7 days

According to the monitoring of the business community, acetic acid enterprises entered the traditional maintenance season, and many acetic acid enterprises began to stop production or plan maintenance in late May, resulting in the decrease of acetic acid supply, the rise of acetic acid price in some areas, and the increasing momentum of acetic acid price in the future.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that the price of acetic acid has stopped falling and stabilized. In June, acetic acid enterprises entered into the traditional maintenance season, and the start-up of acetic acid enterprises decreased, the supply of acetic acid decreased, the price of acetic acid in some areas rose, and the price of acetic acid in the future rose. However, the lower reaches are more resistant to high-level acetic anhydride, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is insufficient. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize after a slight rebound in the future.

The domestic futures market dived on the night of May 19, with black series, chemicals, agricultural products and other futures falling collectively. By the end of the night, coking coal fell by 7.98%, iron ore by 7.92%, steam coal by 7.81%, hot rolled coil by 7.21%, rebar by 7.07% and coke by 6.45%. Chemical products and agricultural products fell, glass fell 6.06%, soda fell 5.33%, methanol fell 4.97%; Palm oil fell 4.17% and soybean oil fell 3.89%.

Premier Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on May 19 to make arrangements to ensure the supply and price of bulk commodities and maintain the stable operation of the economy. The meeting pointed out that since the beginning of this year, affected mainly by multiple factors such as international transmission, the prices of some commodities have continued to rise, and the prices of some varieties have even reached new highs. We should attach great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices, implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, according to the requirements of precise regulation and control, focus on market changes, implement comprehensive policies, ensure the supply of bulk commodities, curb their unreasonable price rise, and strive to prevent transmission to consumer prices.

This is the second time that the executive meeting of the State Council has focused on the issue of commodity prices in seven days. On May 12, the executive meeting of the State Council held a request to track and analyze the domestic and international situation and market changes, and effectively deal with the rapid rise of commodity prices and its associated effects.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the spot market, the prices of nearly 100 kinds of raw materials have declined since May 12, of which 44 kinds have dropped by more than 3%. The top three commodities in the decline are hot rolled coil (- 12.67%), acetone (- 10.06%) and n-butanol (- 9.11%).

The Business Association believes that the reason for the decline in the prices of these raw materials is related to the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the high prices of the downstream terminals. In addition, from “straight into the sky” to “steep decline”, the sharp decline of raw material market is inseparable from the supervision of relevant departments, which shows that the current regulators are determined to curb the rapid rise of bulk commodities. It is expected that the commodity market will gradually return to the balance of supply and demand, and the growth rate will also fall.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of dichloromethane rose rapidly after May Day. As of May 19, the average price in Shandong was 4263 yuan / ton, up 20.43% from 3540 yuan / ton on May 6. The current price has reached a new high since 2019.

After the festival, the overall operation rate of domestic methane chloride plant is close to 80%, and the pressure of supply side is small, which has a certain support for dichloromethane. According to the business news agency, Jinling Dongying unit has completed full load operation after maintenance, Dongyue methane chloride unit has started 50-60%, Jinmao methane chloride unit has been shut down, and about 90% of the units in Luxi have started, Jiangsu Liwen and Jiangxi Liwen have started at full load, and Meilan Juhua has started at about 70%.

enterprise Methane chloride plant Commencement

Jinling, Shandong 440000 tons / year Dawang 80%, Dongying full load

jin mao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical 400000 tons / year 90% load

Dongyue, Shandong 280000 tons / year 50-60% load

Jiangxi Liwen 120000 tons / year Full load

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal operation

Meilan, Jiangsu 200000 tons / year 70% load

Quhua, Zhejiang 300000 / year 70% load

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 70% load

Jiujiang Jiuhong 100000 tons / year 90% load

Jinyi Technology 300000 tons / year Full load operation

On the one hand, the inventory of domestic manufacturers is low, the supply side is tight, and the factory continuously raises the price. At present, the quotation of mainstream dichloromethane factories in Shandong is increased by 570 yuan / ton. On the other hand, film, diluent, foaming agent and other downstream still have a certain rigid demand, which also forms a certain support for dichloromethane.

Although the price of liquid chlorine is at a low level, the price of methanol is higher, and the cost side is still supported. According to the business news agency, as of May 19, the price of methanol was 2680 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 6.06% after the festival; As of May 19, the main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was about 1200 yuan / ton.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that with the recent substantial rise in raw material prices, fear of high sentiment increased, stock decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the price of dichloromethane will be dominated by high stalemate.