Commodity index: on May 25, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.43, down 0.36 points from yesterday, down 15.59% from 107.13 points (May 8, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 9.10% from 82.89 points, the lowest point on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data show that since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province will resume production after the year. In the following January, due to the sharp rise in the cost of acrylonitrile, the market of polyacrylamide has gone up all the way, with an upward range of more than 10% to 10%; There was a slight correction at the end of March, with the range falling to less than 10%. In the first and middle of April, the water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan continued to stop production due to the environmental protection inspection started in the middle of March, and experienced the repeated stop production and resumption of production intermittently. Finally, they officially resumed production in the last ten days of April, and the market showed a slight upward trend. In May, affected by the change of raw material cost and price, the domestic cationic price of polyacrylamide (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) was 15433.33 yuan / ton on the first day, and it was reduced to 14800 yuan / ton on the 25th day. So far this month, it has shown a downward trend, with a range of about 4.1%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and the shortage of supply, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest point in recent five years: on February 18, the mainstream quotation was 12100 yuan / ton, and on March 10, the daily quotation was 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; However, from the middle of March, affected by the lower upstream price, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco reduced its price by 300 yuan / ton to about 16000 yuan / ton; In April, the domestic mainstream market price continued to decline, and stabilized at about 14400 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a downward rate of 10%. In May, after the end of the May Day holiday, there was a short-term slight upward probe, and then a continuous downward shock. It was not until the 25th that there was a rebound of about 150 yuan / ton. The current market mainstream quotation is about 14100-14150 yuan / ton.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. Since May, the LPG market has experienced twists and turns, with an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on the 5th was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on the 25th was 4223.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, during the period, the highest price was 4306.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4150 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 3.64%.

Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after the year, from the middle of February to the middle of March, the price of upstream raw materials has increased significantly, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost of polyacrylamide. As a downstream product, polyacrylamide has increased, resulting in a substantial increase in the procurement cost of downstream enterprises. In the early years after, the water treatment project has not yet recovered, and the demand is weak, so the market of polyacrylamide is not good. During the shutdown period from mid March to mid April, although the inventory is consumed, the demand does not change much; The demand in April is still tepid, and the market change of Polyacrylamide in that month is affected by the inventory of each factory when the production is stopped. Since May, there has been no effective change in demand. Under the condition of normal production and sufficient inventory, combined with the impact of raw material acrylonitrile price, the market of polyacrylamide is in a downward trend.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the market of polyacrylamide is mainly affected by the price of raw material acrylonitrile under the condition of general downstream demand, normal production and sufficient inventory. In the short term, the price of acrylonitrile remained stable after a slight correction, and the market of polyacrylamide did not change much.