1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (12.8-12), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4295 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.14% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC continued its downward trend from last week, with a continuous bearish trend. The decline further deepened, and the market slightly stopped falling near the weekend. Some manufacturers have made price adjustments within the range of 50-100 yuan this week. The market generally followed the decline, and dealers reported a decrease in offers. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, with crude oil prices hovering at low levels and the PVC futures market fluctuating downwards. PVC spot prices tend to follow the downward trend and are relatively weak. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the manufacturer’s equipment is operating stably and the operating rate remains high. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4300-4380 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market remained stable this week (12.8-12), with recent narrow range fluctuations. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the increase this week was 0.15%. However, since December, the calcium carbide market has reached a high level, with weak upward momentum and a decline from the previous peak. There are signs of a peak in the market, which has limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the weak performance of the PVC spot market is mainly due to low downstream operating rates, insufficient demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.