According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market price has recently stopped falling and stabilized. As of November 22, the average market price in East China was 4832 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% from November 18.

Recently, the fundamental changes in PTA have been limited, with prices mainly driven by costs. International crude oil prices have shifted upwards due to the escalation of the conflict between a European country and Ukraine, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate, and the shift in the center of gravity of crude oil prices. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.23 per barrel.

From the perspective of its own supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory, with social inventory estimated at around 3.86 million tons. At present, 3 million tons of PTA plants in East China, including 1.5 million tons and 2.5 million tons of PTA plants, 4.5 million tons in South China, and 1.2 million tons in Northwest China, will be restarted and their load will be increased gradually. The current PTA operating rate in China is around 86%, and it will further increase in the future, with ample supply in the spot market.

The demand side polyester production is around 88%, and there are currently no plans for large-scale polyester plant maintenance or restart. Due to the seasonal off-season, it is difficult to significantly increase production in the future, and PTA is mainly driven by essential needs. The demand for the terminal textile industry is still in the traditional off-season, and market demand is expected to further weaken. There is generally a lack of confidence in the future market, and most downstream procurement attitudes may still be cautious.

Business analysts believe that due to the ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical situation in Europe, international crude oil may experience a wide range of fluctuations. The PTA maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted, and the increase in production has strengthened the expectation of loose supply. The expected start of downstream polyester production is stable, but with the end of the peak season, there is insufficient demand momentum. Overall, the pressure on supply and demand still exists, and PTA lacks upward momentum, so prices may fall.