This week (11.16-11.22), the nickel price market first rose and then fell. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 22, spot nickel was reported at 126933 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.82%. Macro emotions, geopolitical factors, and national policies have driven nickel prices to recover from the downward trend and rise, but the emotional impact has caused nickel prices to fall on the 22nd. At present, with the significant increase in ex factory prices, downstream companies are hesitant to undertake, and the market is more inclined towards low-priced sources.

Macroscopic aspect: the US general election landed, the disturbance mood dissipated, the weak US dollar boosted, the London metal market generally closed positive, the nickel price got rid of the declining trend with the trend, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, geopolitical factors stirred the market trend again, and the nickel price trend was strong. With the continuous effectiveness of existing policies, the effective implementation of incremental policies, and the continuous release of policy combination effects, the trend of China’s economic recovery and improvement is steadily strengthening, which provides favorable support for nickel prices. However, the new US government may impose high tariffs on China, and the market is concerned that the demand for Chinese metals has not decreased. On the 22nd, the upward trend of nickel prices did not continue and fell slightly.

On the supply side: The slow recovery of the foreign economy and the continuous increase in inventory, coupled with the effective implementation of domestic policies, have effectively stimulated domestic demand potential. Shanghai Nickel has been continuously destocking this week. As of November 22, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27492 tons, a decrease of 892 tons from last Friday; But the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality is 31194 tons, an increase of 722 tons from last Friday, and inventory pressure continues; On November 22nd, LME nickel inventory was 159000 tons, an increase of 4566 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side: Stainless steel first rose and then fell during the week. As of November 22, the daily average price of spot 304/2B stainless steel flat plates was 12442.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.01%. The import volume of stainless steel has increased, while the export volume has decreased, resulting in a significant decrease in net exports; Demand has improved, destocking continues, and there is limited room for price declines.

Market forecast: The trend of economic recovery and improvement is slowly emerging, but inventory pressure and price resistance still exist. Macro and emotional factors continue to affect price trends, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.