According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the price of lead 1 # was 16955 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the lead price of 16935 yuan/ton on April 21st.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices have shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with prices running at low levels and moderately recovering. Against the backdrop of an overall balance between supply and demand, the market is achieving dynamic equilibrium through an orderly price adjustment mechanism, and there have been no abnormal fluctuations.
supply end
At present, the domestic primary lead smelting end maintains a high operating trend, and the industry’s comprehensive operating rate remains stable in the range of 70%. With the gradual resumption of smelting capacity that was previously affected by environmental inspections, the supply of primary lead in the market shows marginal incremental characteristics. However, regional raw material supply contradictions still exist: some smelters in the north are disrupted by the lead concentrate supply chain, and some suppliers are hindered by reduced mining production, cross-border transportation (such as delayed port clearance), or rising logistics costs, resulting in longer lead concentrate arrival cycles and insufficient arrival quantities, forcing enterprises to temporarily reduce production loads and constraining subsequent production plans.
The market for recycling waste batteries has shown a narrow range of price fluctuations this week. At the beginning of the month, driven by the expectation of a phased increase in lead prices, the reluctance of recyclers to sell has intensified, and the market circulation of goods has tightened. The willingness of holders of waste lead-acid batteries to ship has significantly increased, coupled with the release of demand for raw material replenishment by recycled lead enterprises, the market circulation of goods has gradually recovered, and the recycling prices have fallen accordingly. The supply-demand game has become more balanced..
demand side
April is the traditional off-season for consumption in the lead-acid battery industry, coupled with increased uncertainty in the global trade environment, resulting in a significant slowdown in the industry’s operating momentum. The demand side is showing a structural weakness trend: the automotive terminal market continues to be sluggish due to the “golden three silver four” trend, with retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year in the first two weeks of April, dragging down the development of lead-acid batteries. In terms of the battery swapping market, the stimulus effect of the policy of exchanging old for new electric bicycles is diminishing, coupled with the impact of the rainy season on terminal willingness to exchange, resulting in a decrease in orders for replacement batteries compared to the previous period, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance during the off-season.
comprehensive analysis
Without effective improvement in the macroeconomic situation, lead prices will find it difficult to obtain effective driving support from the demand side. Based on the current market supply-demand game pattern, it is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate in a weak range next week.