According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will decline in April 2025, with an average price of 17220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16860 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 2.09%.
On April 29th, the Business Society Lead Index was 102.61, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 23.43% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 37.49% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
In early April, due to fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, lead prices showed a weak and volatile pattern. After the end of the Qingming Festival holiday, the direct impact of tariff policy adjustments led to a downward trend in lead prices during the review. With the gradual disappearance of macro disturbance factors and the marginal improvement of the fundamental supply-demand pattern, the center of gravity of lead prices gradually shifts upward, showing an overall strong oscillation operation.
Raw material end
Lead concentrate: The production capacity of mines in northern China is gradually being released, with abundant raw material inventory, improved profits from primary lead smelting, and high production enthusiasm.
Recycled lead raw materials: The amount of discarded lead-acid batteries has decreased, competition in recycling channels has intensified, and the price of discarded batteries is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Recycled lead enterprises may further reduce production due to cost inversion pressure.
demand side
Lead acid batteries: Downstream battery factories have started stocking up before the May Day holiday, but procurement has not yet been concentrated and increased, with demand mainly showing a mild recovery.
Export impact: The tariff policies imposed by China and the United States have increased the import cost of lead concentrate, while suppressing the export of lead-acid batteries, which has suppressed demand.
Prediction of future trends
In the short term, lead prices will show a fluctuating pattern of “upward pressure and downward support”. Upward drive: reduced production of recycled lead+release of pre holiday stocking demand+decrease in inventory. Downward risk: Increased primary lead production+macro risk aversion+export obstruction.