According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 16th to 23rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3655 yuan/ton to 3618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%, a month on month decrease of 1.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%. The domestic asphalt market is fluctuating and falling, international crude oil prices are weak and consolidating, and the asphalt fundamentals are biased towards bearish factors. Early maintenance and production equipment have gradually resumed, and the market supply has increased. However, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and actual delivery is average.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, with the main bearish factors being the delayed expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, continued market concerns about the economic and demand outlook, and an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of May 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.90 per barrel, a decrease of $0.98 or 1.2%.

On the demand side, the trading atmosphere in the asphalt market is relatively light. With the improvement of weather, terminal demand has increased, but business inquiries are still the main focus, and transactions are still mainly in demand.

As of the close of May 23, the petroleum asphalt futures market closed down. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3688 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3698 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3653 yuan/ton. It closed at 3669 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 15% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.51%. The trading volume was 194635 lots, and the position was 224567 lots, with a daily increase of 12472.

In the future market forecast, crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with increased supply and slight differences in demand between the north and south. Asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.