According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 18th to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2625 yuan/ton to 2740 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.38% during the period, a month on month increase of 7.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. The domestic methanol market continues to rise, with some areas experiencing rainy and snowy weather, leading to an increase in shipping costs. Due to the expected reduction in imported supply and the anticipated shutdown of the Southwest Gas Head Methanol Plant, there is a expectation for a decrease in port replenishment and inventory. In addition, the port methanol inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the market has a strong willingness to hold onto the goods. As a result, the port methanol price continues to rise.

As of the close on December 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2662 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2683 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2642 yuan/ton. It closed at 2653 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.45%. The trading volume was 927774 lots, and the position was 866142 lots, with a daily increase of -2871.

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the current region are operating normally, and the overall coal supply level remains stable. It is difficult for terminals to release large-scale demand, and the current market performance is poor. Some coal mines have low online bidding premiums, and there are still unsold sections, resulting in a relatively sluggish trading atmosphere. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: The demand for chloride does not fluctuate significantly; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, but attention should be paid to environmental warning situations in various regions; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to shut down the dimethyl ether plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall device loss exceeds the recovery amount, and the capacity utilization rate decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 24th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 123.50-124.50 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 438.00-439.00 euros/ton.

The future forecast shows that the supply of goods will continue to be abundant, and there will be little change in traditional downstream demand. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.