I. price trend

Monoammonium phosphate has continued to decline since the winter, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On December 16, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 1916 yuan / ton, which was 1.71% lower than that on December 15 (1950 yuan / ton). On December 16, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 64.16, down 1.11 points from yesterday, down 36.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 3.33% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: at present, the operating rate of monoammonium phosphate is about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of powdered ammonium is quoted from 1800 yuan to 1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of mainstream powdered ammonium is quoted from 1950 to 2100 yuan / ton. Some enterprises are in charge of equipment maintenance. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation. The ex factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder is 1800-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream domestic sulfur market is flat, the atmosphere is cold, and generally enters the wait-and-see mood. The industry is bearish on the future market. At present, the reference price of particles in Yangtze River port is 525 yuan / ton. In the near future, the phosphorus chemical industry market has also entered the most slack season of the year. The phosphorus ore market continues to be consolidated and operated. The market is still weak. Many mining enterprises have limited production and quoted prices. Before the year, the prices were not adjusted, and a small part of the mine prices fluctuated slightly. The 30% grade phosphorus ore quotation was reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton, with the overall market still running smoothly. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not good.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, at present, the deep winter has come, the raw material market is cold, the terminal demand is not strong, the downstream is ready to use, and the new orders are rare. It is expected that the decline of monoammonium phosphate will be hard to change in the later period, and the weak operation will continue to prevail. It is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.