According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in May was “upside down”, rising first and then falling. From May 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11670 yuan/ton to 11442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.95% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.73%.

The main reason for the fluctuation of BDO price this time is in the supply side, with the domestic BDO operating rate at around 67%. And in mid to late May and early June, the maintenance/replacement of catalysts for the device involved a production capacity of 460000 tons (accounting for 15.8% of the total production capacity). However, the main downstream end product, spandex, has accumulated inventory and the market has declined. Other downstream end products have also shown weakness, increasing supply and demand pressure.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: In May, the domestic calcium carbide market fluctuated narrowly, with a monthly increase of 5.77%. The high price consolidation of raw material blue charcoal has led to good cost support, insufficient downstream demand, and short-term fluctuations in the calcium carbide market. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level in May, with a decrease of 10.25% during the month. The market for methanol raw material coal is sluggish, and the overall market circulation is large. The supply-demand contradiction is still enveloping the methanol market. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been operating at low levels, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the downstream NMP industry is following the downward trend of the raw material market, and the load of TPU and PU slurry in the polyurethane field is around 40-50%. The enthusiasm for starting construction in the PBAT industry is not high, which suppresses the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The overall demand follow-up volume downstream of the terminal is limited. Short term BDO demand side biased bearish impact.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will soon restart, leading to an increase in supply and a weakening of supply side support. At the same time, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand at the end, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may continue to be weak.