Ethylene glycol prices fall in October
In October, ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and after a rapid increase after the holiday, the sentiment subsided and the price gradually fell back. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39% from September 26th.
On October 28, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4610-4650 yuan/ton. The spot contract basis of ethylene glycol at the port slightly loosened during the day, and the market was initially low and then high. The actual spot transaction price of the contract slightly increased in the afternoon, but there were few transactions, mainly low hanging and receiving goods. Today, the spot market opened in the morning, and the contract basis quotation for this week was+40 to+43. In the afternoon, the basis quotation for this week fell to+38 to+40. In November, the basis quotation for this week was+40 to+43.
On October 28th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4165 to 4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On October 24, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 546 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton.
Crude oil prices plummet in foreign markets, while ethylene glycol cost support remains weak
One of the factors contributing to the rebound in ethylene glycol prices at the beginning of the month is the low inventory of imported ethylene glycol ports combined with the cost support brought by the rebound in external crude oil prices. However, today’s crude oil opened with a jump of 4-5%, and the cost support for ethylene glycol weakened in the external market.
The expectation of a rebound in port inventory remains high
The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. The weekend delivery was good, but the inventory did not continue to accumulate, mainly due to the contract being transferred and picked up on the weekend in October; As of October 28, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 603700 tons, up from 515200 tons on October 14, with a cumulative inventory of 88500 tons. This week, it is expected that there will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at the port, and there is still an expectation of a rebound in port inventory.
Domestic supply rebounds
On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.
Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations recently, with no improvement seen in the short term.
Future expectations
The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.
Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.
The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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