Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market continued a strong trend in late October, most of the spot prices in the market still rose. As of October 26, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was 17.06% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in October was positive. In terms of inventory, the main port of Jiangsu Province has received more styrene ships recently, but less styrene has arrived in the later period. Styrene port inventory showed a new low to the Spring Festival, and there is a continued decline in expectations. In the next month, supply is still expected to be tight, the demand is high and stable, and the market mentality is strong. At the end of last week, the demand for crude oil at the cost side shrank due to the rebound of global epidemic situation. The international oil price fell to a certain extent, which was detrimental to the chemical industry chain, and the cost side support of styrene was weakened. In addition, the Asian Styrene Market Trading atmosphere is weak, the offer is stable, the two negative drag down the rising market, spot prices have individual correction. But on the whole, the short-term decline of styrene space is limited, the market may continue to be good.

In terms of ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the purchasing atmosphere of upstream propylene in Shandong market was low recently, and the price was significantly weakened, which hit the acrylonitrile market sentiment. The far upstream crude oil fell due to the double negative effects of the recovery of production and transportation in Libya and the deterioration of the epidemic situation. The cost support of acrylonitrile is not ideal, but the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remains at a high level after the festival, which has a certain basis for acrylonitrile consumption. However, the peak of replenishment after the festival lacks the “long-term” attribute, and the digestion of acrylonitrile in the future market is likely to weaken. On the supply side, it is reported that Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile production line has maintenance plan, which is favorable for spot price in the short term. It is expected that acrylonitrile will be stronger in the near future, but the price increase will be limited.

In the near future, the quotation of butadiene manufacturers in some regions has been raised by RMB 10000 / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of October 26, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 167.01% in the cycle, reaching a new high point in the year. Affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support, and the whole industrial chain will be favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.

After the festival, the heat of domestic ABS market continued, and the spot price also rose last week. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is generally tight, and the pattern remains unchanged. However, it is reported that the volume of goods delivered in South China is relatively large, resulting in the stagnation of the market, and some profit margins have been reversed. After the double festival, the enthusiasm of replenishment is good after returning to work. To today, the heat tends to weaken, and there is resistance to high price goods. At present, it is still in the traditional peak season, the purchase and sales of household appliances and other industries are still good, and there is a certain consumption base for ABS. The lower reaches of the market are resistant to high price goods. Today, ABS fluctuates and moves at a high level.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: last week ABS market remained positive, the overall price of each brand is high. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is OK, cost side of ABS support. At present, the spot supply of ABS is still tight, and the lower reaches have some resistance to high price goods and passively follow up, and the trading atmosphere has dropped. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be high consolidation in the near future.