According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has been weak recently, with various wire drawing brands increasing. As of October 20th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7728.57 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+-3.13% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials in September, the domestic propylene market maintained stable operation after being supported by crude oil. However, in the short term, the insufficient rise in crude oil may lead to weak future market conditions, and the PDH side will weaken simultaneously. In terms of methanol, there has been significant stability and small fluctuations, with mixed fluctuations in the upstream raw materials of PP, and overall support is still in place.

The trend of raw materials in various directions varies, and the support for PP on the cost side is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average industry load has recently exceeded 81%, slightly lower than before. The overall supply of goods is stable, but some enterprises have experienced unplanned maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply pressure. In terms of demand, the downstream production of plastic weaving remains at over 45%, while the production rate of film and injection molding enterprises remains around 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, with average trading activity, and the overall market for wire drawing materials is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7687.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -4.21% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 5.48% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a narrow increase in load, and the operating rate has risen to over 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is orderly, with stable prices for non-woven fabrics being the main focus, and the digestion speed of end products is normal. It is expected that in the short term, the decline in fiber materials may be narrowed due to cost drag.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent market for melt blown PP has remained stable with little movement. As of October 20th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is about 8375 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.30%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has returned to normal, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is generally driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main benefits of melt blown materials are concentrated on the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a sideways consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the recent decline in the polypropylene market has narrowed. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is acceptable, and the support of the cost side to the market is average. The construction of terminal enterprises continues to maintain the previous level, and the purchasing operation is biased towards weak and rigid demand, accelerating the trend of profit and loss. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market may experience cost support and its decline will narrow.