1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal fell this week. On February 7, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 711.25 yuan / ton, and on February 1, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at about 787.5 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 9.68% and a year-on-year increase of 24.73%. On February 7, the steam coal commodity index was 85.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 91.70% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The quoted price of steam coal continued to fall, because the daily consumption of terminal power plants continued to fall, the demand for downstream procurement was light, multi-dimensional long-term cooperative transportation was the main, and the market trade activity decreased. In terms of origin, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival and the holiday of coal mines, there are not many coal mines with price adjustment, and there is a phenomenon of accumulation.

Downstream power plants: due to the obvious rise of national temperature, there will be few cold air attacks in the next few days, and the demand for civil heating power will weaken. The daily consumption of the power plant has fallen back to the normal level in previous years, and the number of days available for coal storage has increased, so it is difficult for the short-term power plant to increase. It is understood that the number of days available for inventory of power plants in coastal areas has risen to around 20 days. During the Spring Festival, most factories have a holiday, so the demand for electricity has dropped significantly, and the demand for industrial electricity has no obvious support.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on February 4, the national coal prices rose and fell in late January. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 930 yuan / ton, which is 15 yuan / ton higher than that in the previous period, with an increase of 1.6%, and a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The price of ordinary blended coal (Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal blended coal, calorific value 4500 kcal) was 701.8 yuan / ton, down 62 yuan / ton or 8.1% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahua (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 784.4 yuan / ton, down 55.4 yuan / ton or 6.6% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 880.4 yuan / ton, down 3.4 yuan / ton or 0.4% compared with the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong blended coal, calorific value 5800 kcal) was 903.9 yuan / ton, down 4.9 yuan / ton or 0.5% compared with the previous period.

Business analysts believe: the Spring Festival is approaching, the weather is obviously warmer, there will be little cold air in the future. The inventory of power plants continued to increase, and the demand for electricity decreased near the Spring Festival. In addition, it will take some time to return to work after the Spring Festival, and the demand for steam coal may turn weak. On the whole, the price of steam coal during the spring festival may remain weak, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.