1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, on April 17, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, up 1.88% from last Friday.
On April 17, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton or 1.76% compared with that at the beginning of the week.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of April 16, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1150400 tons, an increase of 5200 tons or 0.45% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 2200 tons or 0.19% compared with this Monday. Although the inventory rise is small, the total volume is still high.
In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6400 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 2800 tons per day to the two warehouses. Although it is up from last week, it is not optimistic compared with the same period last year.
At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 55.2%, which is lower than that of last week. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 85.38%, which is slightly higher than that of last week.
In terms of units, Xinjiang Tianye 350000t / a ethylene glycol unit will be shut down for maintenance on April 5; Wuhan Petrochemical 280000t / a unit will be shut down for maintenance on April 12, and it is estimated that the maintenance will take about 20 days for Shanxi Yangmei group to level the 200000 t / a unit for maintenance on March 28, with the duration to be determined.
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3、 Analysis and prediction
At the beginning of this week, an OPEC + production reduction agreement was reached, and the glycol market was once encouraged. However, as the global public health events become more and more serious, there is no sign of improvement in a short period of time, resulting in blocked downstream exports. At the same time, although crude oil production has been reduced, the oil price continues to fall, which also poses a test on the cost of glycol. Under the attack of upstream and downstream, the price of glycol continued to be weak this week. Although the decline was not big, it was difficult to see an improvement.
Although the spot price of glycol rebounded on Friday, crude oil demand did not rise substantially. In terms of domestic production capacity, although the operating rate of coal-fired units has declined, the capacity of oil-fired units has increased significantly compared with last year, and the source of imported goods has continued to flow. Under the condition that the supply is far greater than the demand, it is obviously very difficult for the price of glycol to keep rising.
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