According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 8th to December 17th (as of 15:00), the price of methanol in the East China port market in China increased from 2090 yuan/ton to around 2140 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 5.16% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.74%. Recently, the domestic methanol market has been supported by shipping costs, and local prices have shown strong performance. The port market is facing dual pressures of high inventory and supply pressure.
As of the close on December 17th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose on December 16th, 2025. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2125 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2171 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2121 yuan/ton. It closed at 2156 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, up 39 yuan or 1.84% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Trading volume 904393, open position 874732, daily increase position -21895.
On the cost side, the coal fundamentals maintain a relatively loose pattern, with a downward shift in price focus, leading to weakened support for methanol costs. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, downstream MTO demand is weak, which restricts the room for overall demand growth. The profits of downstream industries may be under pressure. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
Supply side, some equipment maintenance; There are also devices that reduce production; Some devices have also been restored; The overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. At present, according to statistics, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities in the next period will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase. Therefore, the overall market supply may increase. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 16th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $316.5-317.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 87.5-88.5 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 252.5-253.5 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Future forecast: Currently, the methanol market in mainland China has abundant supply, coupled with relatively strong freight rates. Upstream production areas are mainly actively reducing prices for shipments. Business Society’s methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will narrow and observe the situation.