1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on April 15, the average domestic market price of soda ash in East China was about 1510 yuan / ton, 26.6% lower than the price at the beginning of 2018. Now the overall price has hovered near the cost line. On April 14, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.17, flat with yesterday, down 31.98% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.95% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: in the first quarter of 2020, affected by domestic public health events, the start of soda ash manufacturers dropped sharply, and there were many manufacturers that stopped production. The data showed that the average start-up rate of domestic manufacturers was reduced to about 70%. With the acceleration of resumption of work and production, the start-up of soda ash manufacturers has increased rapidly. At present, the average start-up rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%, which once led to the high domestic soda ash inventory. Some data show that as of April 9, the total warehouse of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 1.4099 million tons, an increase of 12.21% month on month. Domestic soda consolidation market has been running for a long time. At present, the overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1550 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1450-1550 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1500-1600 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. There are not many transactions in the market. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term. The domestic soda ash market is weak, the market atmosphere is flat, the transaction follow-up is poor, the enterprise inventory pressure is large, the enterprise overall presents the situation of poor delivery.

Demand side: the demand side support for glass, metallurgy, papermaking, printing and dyeing, synthetic detergent, petrochemical industry, food, medicine and health, etc. downstream of soda ash is still weak, the transaction is tepid and tepid, and the price of the enterprise keeps stable. In terms of the industrial chain, the price of glass paper in the downstream shows a downward trend, with a general demand for soda ash. The price trend of corrugated base paper and glass

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (6.58%) and PVC (4.62%); the main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 4.41%) and caustic soda (- 2.30%). This week’s average was 0.9%.

The Soda Industry Association issues a production restriction notice, or injects a “booster” into the soda enterprise

In view of the high inventory of soda ash enterprises and the impact of the continuous downturn in the market, the soda ash industry association requires that during the period from April 18, 2020 to October 18, 2020, soda ash enterprises reduce 30% load for production to promote the development of the whole industry. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash will be reduced by at least 5.6 million tons at that time. The Soda Industry Association’s notice of production reduction may be beneficial to the price of soda.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of soda ash of business association, the domestic market of soda ash continues to be depressed, the price of manufacturers has fallen to the historical low level within 3 years, and even some manufacturers have fallen below the cost line. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is general, the transaction is not warm, and the market pessimism is lingering. The soda ash industry association has issued a production limit notice, which has boosted the downstream demand for soda ash, consumed the high inventory of soda ash, or injected into the market of soda ash“ Cardiotonic. The price of soda ash may be favorable and rebound, depending on the downstream market demand and the production reduction and operation of the manufacturer’s devices.