1、 Price data

This week (4.20-4.26) the price of refined petroleum coke remained stable. According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average mainstream price of domestic refineries’ petroleum coke products is 1055.00 yuan / ton.

On April 26, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, 47.26% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 22.68% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke is relatively stable this week, and the price of petroleum coke is generally stable.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 25.03 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 16.94 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 32.32%; Brent crude oil is 28.08 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 24.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the “US Iraq” relationship was once again strained. OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Downstream: at the end of the month, the capital pressure of downstream enterprises is high, and the price of prebaked anode in May has not been determined yet; the demand of calcined coking enterprises is general; the inventory pressure of carbon enterprises is high, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general, mainly on demand procurement. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated this week. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of April 26 was 12476.67 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the overall market price of petroleum coke in this week is stable, and it is near the end of the month, and the capital pressure of downstream enterprises is large. The price of prebaked anode in May has not been determined yet. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, mainly purchasing on demand. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the near future will be stable, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range may be around 950-1100 yuan / ton.