1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic toluene continued the upward trend of last week. The price of toluene was 3910 yuan / ton on January 17, and 4037.5 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 24), up 3.71% from 127.5 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-250 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, the toluene market was very strong, with strong atmosphere, and the focus of negotiation was pushed up. Near the weekend, prices soared and fell. In terms of external market, as of January 22, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 548 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton or 2.81% compared with January 15; the price of imported toluene from East China was 554 US dollars / ton, up 22 US dollars / ton or 4.14% compared with January 15. During the week, the external price continued last week’s rise, which was supported by the favorable conditions, and the price of toluene continued to rise.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news guidance is weak, and the market hopes that the new US fiscal stimulus plan will be implemented. Compared with January 15, Brent rose by $0.705/barrel, or 1.29%; WTI fell by $0.15/barrel, or 0.29%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from last week and up 7.12% from the same period last year. The range consolidation of East China market was boosted by the favorable support of suppliers. The overall offer of the industry was up, followed by the rising part of the downstream. There was an increase in the market inquiry of just needed goods. On the whole, the transaction was still cautious.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week compared with last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton, or 10.64%, compared with last week, with a year-on-year decline of 24.64%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price remained high, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported. The higher external price brought some positive support to the domestic market.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health incident and the rain and snow weather in the north, some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down, and the toluene market demand is weak. In addition, domestic trade ships will arrive in Hong Kong, and the price is expected to decline slightly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.