According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (8.9-8.19). On August 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7180 yuan/ton, and on August 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.24% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. The crude oil market fluctuated widely within the week, and the market mentality was weak. In terms of supply, there were toluene shipments to ports in East and South China this week, which slightly accumulated inventory and dragged down the market mentality. The overall demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the gasoline blending industry is low. Downstream demand tends to be rigid, coupled with a weak macro perspective, which has led to a strong market atmosphere. As of August 19th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 7100-7150 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 100-150 yuan/ton compared to last week.

Cost wise: During this cycle, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. As of August 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.65 per barrel, a decrease of $1.51 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.68 per barrel, a decrease of $1.36 or 1.7%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered overall this week, with a range of 100 yuan/ton. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7050 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7250 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7100-7150 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7100 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On August 19th, Sinopec Sales Company’s xylene price dropped by 200 yuan/ton, and the current execution price is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 16th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia, CFR China, was between $934-936 per ton, a decrease of $48 per ton from last week.

On Friday (August 16th), the Asian toluene market closed lower: the FOB South Korean closing price in September was $871-873 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton; The closing price of CFR China in September is 857-859 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The cost based crude oil market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the near future, with limited impact on the toluene market. On the supply side, some enterprises in Shandong have been operating at high inventory levels, with a strong intention to ship recently and a wide range of price reductions. However, there is a lack of follow-up intention from downstream procurement. Affected by the macro atmosphere, the overall atmosphere of the toluene market has been weak recently, with low downstream purchasing intentions and limited trading. Although the price is at a relatively low level this year, some regions have some intention to replenish inventory, but overall transactions are limited. Downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand, and demand support is insufficient. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and there is a strong supply-demand game mentality. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future