Technical prediction of asphalt market: it will continue to operate at a high level

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 28.30%.

At present, the price of asphalt is rising, but it is still at a historically low level, with monitoring levels of one year, two years, and three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average asphalt price in the past three years is 3928.83 yuan/kg, with a median value of 4120.17 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 3421 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 4819.33 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 245.57 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1152.76 yuan/kg.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 17th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3629 yuan/ton to 3699 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93%, a month on month increase of 2.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%. Driven by the rise of international crude oil, cost support has strengthened, and asphalt spot prices continue to rise. The demand for spot resources has differentiated, with the temperature in the northern region recovering slowly and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm being limited; The widespread rainfall in the south has hindered the demand for essential goods, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. In the short term, the spot price of asphalt remains relatively strong, with a focus on strength in the north and weakness in the south for the time being.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises stabilized production after resuming production in April, driving a slight increase in asphalt production in Shandong region, and the overall supply remains abundant; The main refinery in Xinjiang, Ke Petrochemical, saw a slight increase, driving a slight increase in overall supply. There is a bearish impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and in the short term, oil prices will continue to operate at high levels. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of continued upward trend after later adjustments, mainly due to the unresolved supply side risks and the difficulty in cooling geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States will stimulate gasoline demand. Both supply and demand will provide strong support for oil prices. As of April 17th, Brent crude oil futures closed slightly lower, with the settlement price of the main contract at $90.02 per barrel, a decrease of $0.08.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, demand for asphalt is slowly recovering, with limited low-priced resources and some shipments being supported. In the southern region, there are mostly cloudy and rainy weather, which hinders demand for asphalt. There is mainly a small amount of speculative low-priced demand. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of April 17th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has fallen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3788 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3797 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3756 yuan/ton. It closed at 3768 yuan/ton in the last trading day, a decrease of 36% compared to the previous settlement day, a decrease of 0.95%. The trading volume was 127739 lots, and the position was 227515 lots, with a daily increase of -1588.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and asphalt supply remains abundant, with slight differences in demand between the north and south. The asphalt analyst of Business Society predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.