1、 Price trend
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According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on November 17, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 7832.5 yuan / ton, up 2.05% compared with the previous day, 10.43% higher than the beginning of the month, 12.29% month on month, and 16.17% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
At the beginning of this week, PVC showed a strong pattern, with the mainstream prices rising significantly. On the 16th and 17th consecutive days, the prices increased by 100-350 yuan / ton, with a large increase. Some enterprises have now risen to 8000 yuan / ton, and there have been many price adjustments in one day. The low-end prices are rare, the trading center is moving up, and the market is also rising. The forward price has broken through the 7500 bottleneck and reached a new high. The shipping schedule of Formosa Plastics in December Price rise of 40-100 US dollars / ton and other factors, good futures price rise, PVC market continues to be good, forward and present prices rise hand in hand. At present, the shortage of goods in PVC spot market continues, the maintenance enterprises in the early stage recover, and the operating rate increases. However, the inventory continues to de trend, which shows that the support force of downstream demand is not retreating, and the off-season effect is lagging behind. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide is rising, and the strong support from the cost side jointly promotes the PVC market to go up. The manufacturers are calm and the price sentiment is still strong. At the same time, the psychology of “buying up but not buying down” is still in the market The overall market mentality is good, and there is still bullish expectation in the short term.
In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is 7870-7940 yuan / ton. In East China, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide is around 7550-7650 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, 7750-7800 yuan / ton is delivered; in Inner Mongolia, the price is increased by 7530-7570 yuan / ton, including tax; in Hangzhou, the price is 7920-8070 yuan / ton; in Changzhou, it is 7950-8050 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Changzhou, the mainstream is 7950-8050 yuan / ton, and the price is rising The mainstream price of materials is 8030-8100 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; the quotations from all over the country are rising steadily.
In terms of futures, PVC futures rose sharply to a new high recently, boosting the spot market. On the 17th, the main PVC futures contract 2101 opened at 7515 yuan / ton and closed at 7525 yuan / ton. Yesterday, the settlement price was 7420 yuan / ton, up 1.42%. The trading range was 7340-7530 yuan / ton, with 269968 transactions and 301296 positions.
Regional variety technology November 17
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 7950-8050 yuan / ton
Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method: 8030-8100 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 7750-7800 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 7920-8070 yuan / ton
Upstream crude oil, on the 16th, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.34/barrel, up $1.21 or 3.02%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.82/barrel, up $1.04.
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Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. On the 16th, the market demand of ethylene market in Europe was moderate. FD northwest Europe quoted 718-729 US dollars / ton, down 6 dollars / ton. CIF northwest Europe quoted 709-718 dollars / ton, down 4 dollars / ton. In recent years, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 845-855 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 770-780 US dollars / ton. The US ethylene market has been stable recently, with FD US $446-456/t, up US $44 / T. affected by the price rise of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly rise.
Calcium carbide, in late January, calcium carbide Market small fluctuations rise. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The shortage of PVC in the downstream was serious and the market rose sharply. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid November.
According to the data, from January to October, the construction area of real estate development enterprises in China was 88.11 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January September. Among them, the residential construction area was 6218.36 million square meters, an increase of 3.8%. The newly started area of houses was 1807.18 million square meters, a decrease of 2.6% and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Among them, the newly started residential area was 1324.81 million square meters, a decrease of 3.3%. The area of completed houses was 492.4 million square meters, down 9.2% and 2.4 percentage points. Among them, the completed residential area was 354.43 million square meters, down 7.9%.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business agency believe that the current PVC spot market supply is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, indicating that the support of downstream demand is not retreating, and the off-season effect is lagging behind. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide is rising, and the cost side is strongly supported, and the futures are pulling up. It is expected that the PVC market will be strong in the short term, and there is still a rising expectation.
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