After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the coal railway transfer in volume of northern port has significantly recovered and increased. However, affected by the factors such as higher downstream purchasing enthusiasm, better coal transfer out from port, and limited growth rate of coal supply in production area, coal inventory in northern port increased slowly, and coal price and coal transportation price increased steadily.
| Poly glutamic acid |
Last week, the main steam coal futures 2101 contract high fall, the main funds reduction and import coal news disturbance is the fuse of the decline. However, the fundamental pattern of low inventory and strong demand in the steam coal market is difficult to reverse in a short period of time. It is expected that the price of steam coal will still be dominated by strong operation this winter.
Slow growth of coal inventory
After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the coal railway transfer in volume of northern port has significantly recovered and increased. However, affected by the factors such as higher downstream purchasing enthusiasm, better coal transfer out from port, and limited growth rate of coal supply in production area, coal inventory in northern port increased slowly, and coal price and coal transportation price increased steadily.
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission said that it would continue to promote domestic coal enterprises to increase production and supply, but at the same time, it always insisted on safety as the premise of ensuring supply. From the perspective of the utilization rate of coal production capacity in the main production areas, the production capacity has been at a high level within the year. No matter for the reasons of policy guidance or good production profits, coal enterprises have a high enthusiasm for increasing production. However, under the background of normalization of safety inspection, the space for further improvement of daily output of raw coal is relatively limited.
And the downstream coal demand gradually opened the peak season mode. As cold air activities become more frequent, the “cold winter” closely watched by the market is expected to materialize. This week, China’s central and eastern regions ushered in a wide range of rain and snow cooling weather, the lowest air temperature 0 ℃ line will be pushed southward to the central and southern part of the Huanghuai river. It is estimated that in the next 20 days, the temperature in most areas of China will be close to or lower than the annual average level in the same period.
Although the downstream power plants have replenished the coal inventory in advance to a level higher than that in the same period of previous years, the coal inventory of important transit ports is at a low level, and it is expected that it will not accumulate in peak season, so the market sentiment will still exist.
Limited increase in import coal
There have been many unconfirmed reports this week that the quantity limit on imported coal will be relaxed to stabilize domestic coal prices. However, some people in the industry said that Guangdong Province applied to increase the import quota of 28.61 million tons, but only 3 million tons were approved. Zhejiang Province confirmed the increase of 2 million tons, Jiangsu Province confirmed the increase of 3 million tons, and Jiangxi, Anhui and Guangxi each confirmed the increase of 1 million tons. Generally speaking, the total new quota is relatively limited, and most of them are to deal with the goods which have not been cleared through customs in the early stage. There is no sign of relaxation in Australia’s coal import.
From the international coal price point of view, since China has strictly controlled the quantity of imported coal, the operating center of NEWC steam coal spot price in Newcastle port, Australia, has continued to fall from about 100 USD / T to 50 USD / T. Recently, the international coal market demand is good, and the international steam coal price has rebounded. The price increase of Richards port in South Africa is the most prominent, followed by the ARA three port coal price index in Europe, and the worst performance is the coal price index of Newcastle port in Australia. After the fluctuation of the composite exchange rate, the cci5500 imported coal price index, which is priced in RMB, also shows no sign of significant rise in the near future, which is not in line with the scenario of China’s liberalization of coal import. Therefore, the horizontal control policy of imported coal is still the main theme and will not constitute supply pressure.
Reduction of main capital positions
On the technical side, last week, the main steam coal 2101 contract did not effectively break through the resistance of the early high point. After a short run, the long short funds both reduced their positions and left the market, which led to the reduction of the disk volume and the reduction of the positions to the 40 day moving average. This week, the 20 day moving average showed that the steam coal futures are still in the bull market, but the volume and position growth is not big, and the rising momentum is still in the stage of accumulation. As the coastal coal price has entered the red area, the relevant departments have launched the response mechanism to suppress the abnormal fluctuation of coal price, and stressed that the coal price does not have a substantial rise foundation this winter, so the price rise of steam coal will not be a steep unilateral market. Combined with fundamental support factors, it is recommended to buy in batches every callback.
| Polyglutamic acid |