This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, while Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week. The price in Shandong first fell and then rose, and the price stabilized at the weekend. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the decline of liquid ammonia was 1.06% in the week of 18th according to the monitoring of the business agency, and the main market quotation was 2750-3000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong decreased for two consecutive days, the range was about 150 yuan / ton, and the price rose slightly at the weekend. Before the beginning of the week, the main equipment of large factories was still in the maintenance period, the liquid ammonia shipment increased significantly, the manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased, and the enterprise’s quotation was mainly based on the corresponding margin. However, at the end of the week, the enterprise’s equipment material returned to stability, so the price stabilized and rebounded slightly In the near future, prices will remain stable.

In other regions, big stability and small movement, while Hebei region closely followed the price trend of Shandong region. However, although the price in Shandong region changed this week, the range was not large, and the ammonia outflow from Shandong was not as large as expected, and the impact on Hebei region was not obvious. Therefore, the manufacturers’ prices in Hebei region were multidimensional stable in the previous week, and the prices did not change significantly. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is 2950-3100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business agency believes that most of the liquid ammonia market has stabilized over the weekend. In the first half of the month, the price range of liquid ammonia fluctuates, and there is no big market. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will continue to consolidate in the near future, and the trend of various regions may appear certain differentiation. The market is mainly affected by large plants and devices, and the later period may be mountainous There are still maintenance problems in the East region. It is not ruled out that the ammonia quantity will gradually accumulate and the price may be impacted to some extent. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigid and stable, and urea winter storage begins. However, the current high inventory is not relieved, and the price support is limited. In terms of the downstream fertilizer market, with the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season approaching, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Comprehensive consideration, liquid ammonia will maintain stability in the near future, and COSCO will maintain stability in the near future There are downside risks in futures prices.