According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has slightly increased in recent days (7.12-7.19). On July 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7610 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, a small increase of 0.13%. During the week, the market trend of toluene in various regions stabilized, and the market showed a situation of weak supply and demand, especially downstream demand only maintained the level of rigid demand replenishment, which had a certain drag on market sentiment. The focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined during the week, but due to tight supply, the downward space was limited, and market prices fluctuated narrowly.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, the enterprise is operating normally, the equipment production is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7600 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7500-7550 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7700-7750 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7650 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

This week, the comprehensive operating rate of PX in China is about 89%. On July 22, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China are all implementing this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. The price of PX in the external market has declined. As of July 19th, the closing price of CFR China was $1009/ton, a decrease of $3/ton from last week.

On Friday (July 19th), the Asian toluene market closed with mixed gains and losses, with the FOB Korea closing price of 879-881 US dollars/ton in August, down 1 US dollar/ton; The closing price of CFR China in August is 919-921 US dollars per ton, an increase of 4 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: With the recent increase in incoming goods, the overall supply of toluene in the market is relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream procurement intentions are relatively weak, with only some transactions in the southern region. The market negotiation atmosphere is relatively active, while the overall demand in Shandong and eastern China is relatively weak. Overall, the lack of downstream demand support has led to a bearish supply-demand situation in the toluene market, and it is expected that the market trend will be volatile in the short term.