1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has fallen. On July 23rd, the average market price in Shandong was around 807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from last weekend and an increase of 8.47% year-on-year. On July 22, the chemical index was 879 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the expected recovery of equipment maintenance and inventory in Shandong region is average, and downstream procurement is weak, resulting in relatively weak demand. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of about 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Shandong region, the price of caustic soda has slightly increased, with a mainstream market price of about 750-830 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. Most enterprises have lowered their prices by 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 29th week of 2024 (7.15-7.19), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-1.84%), baking soda (-0.90%), and PVC (-0.61%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.56%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has fallen, and the equipment of previous maintenance companies has gradually resumed, leading to an expected increase in supply and inventory. The demand for downstream alumina is average and lacks favorable support. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating trend in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.