The price of plasticizer DOP hit a new low for the year in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the DOP price dropped by 21.23% to 12091.67 yuan/ton. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in July, and on July 29th, the price of DOP hit a new low for the year 2024. On July 29th, the price was at its lowest point in a year, a decrease of 2691.67 yuan/ton or 22.03% from the highest price of 12216.67 yuan/ton in a year.

In terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol hit a new annual low in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.66% from the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 30.76% from the price of 12950 yuan/ton on January 1st. In July, isooctanol hit a new low for the year, and on July 29th, the price of isooctanol was at its lowest point in a year. The trading atmosphere for new orders in the isooctanol market remains weak. In July, the octanol plant in the northwest region resumed normal production, and there are plans to start production for the octanol plant in Zibo, Shandong. The purchase of spot octanol has slowed down, putting pressure on high-end market offers. The Shandong factory took the initiative to lower prices for shipments, but due to poor transactions in the plasticizer market, small orders from buyers were restocked, which affected the market trading atmosphere. The support for octanol prices is insufficient, and the price of isooctanol has hit a new low for the year.

Supply factors

The cost of DOP is mainly affected by the raw material octanol, with a correlation coefficient of 0.960 between isooctanol and DOP. The trend of DOP market is highly correlated with the isooctanol market. As the expected production of the new octanol unit approaches in the later stage, industry players generally lack confidence in the future market. Octanol factories maintain low inventory operations for their products, while plasticizer factories also adopt a cautious attitude towards the procurement of raw material octanol, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory at low prices in stages. The short-term concentrated replenishment of buying orders can only temporarily support the market price, but lacks sustained rebound momentum, and the future DOP market may experience long-term fluctuations and weak operation.

Demand factors

The overall demand for terminals is in the off-season. From the comparison of quarterly demand trends in previous years, the third quarter was mostly the off-season for DOP consumption. The high temperature in the south affects construction and product production, leading to high cost pressure and insufficient order demand, resulting in a significant reduction in workload and production shutdowns for small and medium-sized enterprises; The production of PVC disposable gloves industry is hovering around 4-4.5%; As temperatures rise, the proportion of plasticizers added to the film industry decreases. The demand for industries related to construction and decoration, such as furniture packaging film, flooring, PVC wallpaper, etc., remains weak. In the absence of confidence in the future market, downstream product companies are forced to replenish their inventory of DOP at low prices, resulting in a lack of sustained market transactions and insufficient support for demand in the face of DOP.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the price of raw material isooctanol has fallen to a new low, the price of phthalic anhydride has weakened and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; Downstream demand is low season, with poor demand for plasticizers. In the future, as the cost of DOP raw materials decreases and downstream demand is low, the price of plasticizer DOP is weakly consolidating.