This week (July 22-26, 2024), downstream demand for cotton yarn was flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The upstream raw material dissolution slurry market remained strong, with cost support remaining. Adhesive short fiber enterprises had tight inventory, and adhesive short fiber was running steadily with stable prices. The downstream cotton yarn market has weak production, and the overall market is still dominated by rigid demand procurement. There is no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments, and the overall market delivery speed is stable.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (July 22-26, 2024). As of July 26th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of supply, the production of adhesive short fiber factories has remained stable, with an industry operating load rate of around 78%, and overall shipments remain relatively stable.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolving pulp remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolving pulp for domestic enterprises is referenced to 7700 yuan/ton, and the price for external markets is referenced to 940 US dollars/ton, which supports the cost of adhesive short fibers. And the adhesive short fiber industry is in a narrow loss state, with factories showing reluctance to sell at low prices.

In terms of demand, the downstream market for human cotton yarn is deepening during the off-season, and with slow shipments, the replenishment of viscose staple fibers may still be mainly driven by rigid demand.

Future forecast

In July, the textile market entered the traditional off-season, with weak terminal demand and low operating rates of downstream cotton yarn factories. The cotton yarn market may be lukewarm. With the arrival of high temperatures, downstream cotton yarn factories may also reduce production, and the demand for viscose staple fibers lacks favorable support. However, some adhesive short fiber factories have relatively sufficient orders, and the sentiment of low price reluctance to sell may still exist, resulting in relatively firm offers. The inventory of adhesive short fiber enterprises may remain at a low level in the short term, and the tight delivery of adhesive short fiber factories in the short term will have a boosting effect on the market. The market price of raw material dissolution slurry remains stable, providing stable support for the cost end of adhesive short fibers. Overall, it is expected that the market for adhesive short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations. The price is expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.