Introduction: In the first half of 2023, the domestic market for butyl acrylate showed an N-shaped trend, and in the second half, it showed an N-shaped trend. Affected by the decline in prices of dual raw materials, the release of new production capacity for butyl ester, and the recovery of lower than expected downstream demand in the fundamental common market. The demand for butyl acrylate slowly recovered in the second half of the year, and the upstream raw material butanol and octanol prices rose beyond expectations. The price of butyl acrylate rebounded slightly from September to October. The price fluctuation of butyl acrylate is significantly weak compared to last year.

Comparison of quarterly fluctuations in the domestic butyl acrylate market

In terms of price fluctuations, the price of butyl acrylate in the domestic market was around 10800 yuan/ton in the first quarter, a decrease of 5700 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022; The price in the second quarter was around 9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7100 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The price in the third quarter was around 9900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2200 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The price in the fourth quarter was around 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2022. The peak price in 2023 was around 11500 yuan/ton, which occurred in mid to late September and early October, respectively. The lowest price was around 8800 yuan/ton, which appeared in early April. The price peak price difference range in 2023 is 2700 yuan/ton, which is significantly narrower than the high and low price difference in 2022.

Both supply and demand data have fallen, and the performance of the butyl acrylate market is mediocre

In the first half of the year, there were many butyl acrylate factories that carried out load reduction operations, resulting in a production volume of only 1.024 million tons, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the same period in the first half of the year. In terms of imports, due to the increase in imports from Russia since the second half of last year, according to customs data, the cumulative import volume of butyl acrylate from November 2023 to November 2023 in China was 10798.937 tons, a decrease of 2417.407 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 18.29%. The cumulative export volume from January to November was 216835.105 tons, a decrease of 22358.683 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 9.35%. In November, due to the maintenance and load reduction of multiple factories for butyl acrylate, the spot supply was tight. The situation of oversupply in 2024 may still exist, but with the recovery and continuous development of the domestic economy, the supply-demand relationship may gradually move towards balance.

The demand continues to be weak, and the overall driving force of downstream industries is limited.

In 2023, the downstream tape master roll industry of butyl acrylate will also maintain a light demand situation. The purchase volume of adhesive tape master rolls is low, and there is insufficient support for the market price of adhesive tape master rolls. Adhesive tape master roll manufacturers are offering discounts to promote transactions. The cost has weakened the support for the tape master roll, resulting in a significant shortage of new transactions on the market and high pressure on actual transactions.

In terms of acrylic lotion, affected by the cost and the characteristics of downstream demand in slack and peak seasons, the price of acrylic lotion also has a certain rise and fall law with seasonal changes. The peak season of acrylic acid lotion industry is concentrated in March, April, September and October, among which March and October have a large increase. 1. Downstream demand was sluggish in June, November, and December, and prices showed a downward trend. As a downstream product, acrylic lotion is greatly affected by the terminal real estate industry. The repair speed may be slightly slow, and the market price increase may be limited.

As the end of the year approaches, the domestic market for butyl acrylate has slightly rebounded, but it is still in a loss making state. The main reason for the increase is that the price of upstream raw material butanol has exceeded expectations. Although there is a high cost pressure, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the confidence of the industry in the future market is insufficient. The supply-demand contradiction is still concentrated in the downstream terminal consumption speed.