Price trend: (9.9-9.17)
The supply of dichloromethane in the Shandong market is loose but demand is weak. Market transactions are cautious and mainly wait-and-see. Enterprises continue to offer discounts and reduce inventory, leading to a continued downward trend and bottoming out of the market. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 17th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.9% during the period and a year-on-year drop of 33.63%. The price has reached a new low in nine years. At present, the operating rate of the supply side has been reduced, enterprises have lowered their burdens and stabilized prices, exports continue to increase, market supply pressure has eased, and prices have bottomed out and stabilized.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Supply contraction to reduce negative pressure and stabilize prices
The operating rate of the methane chloride plant in the industry has been reduced from a high of 85%, and the Dongying Huatai plant has been reduced to 50% operation. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and they have been continuously offering discounts on shipments in the early stage. Currently, they are easing the supply pressure by reducing the burden and increasing their willingness to stabilize prices.
Cost side: large stability with small fluctuations, overall stable cost support
In terms of raw material methanol, the market was supported by the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, and the price slightly increased. As of September 17th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2286.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% during the cycle. However, the supply of equipment from mainland China is still increasing, and imports to ports are currently at a high level. Downstream equipment maintenance has weakened demand, and overall inventory continues to rise. Port inventory has reached a historic high, suppressing upward space. The shipment of liquid chlorine is poor, and prices in Shandong have slightly decreased, resulting in stable and weak overall cost support.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand, bright external demand
In terms of domestic demand: the main downstream refrigerant industry is constrained by quotas, with rigid demand but no significant increase; The fields of pharmaceuticals, chemical synthesis, and others have experienced a mild recovery, while industries such as adhesives and coatings have been affected by the downturn in the real estate market and still rely mainly on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of exports, it continues to perform strongly, with increased exports to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions. In September, export inquiries and ship arrangements remained active, effectively easing domestic supply pressure.
Market outlook: Short term or slight rebound, with limited rebound amplitude
With the reduction of enterprise maintenance burden and the maintenance of high exports, the marginal improvement of market supply and demand structure, there is a slight room for price exploration. However, due to the limited recovery of domestic demand, weak support on the cost side, and insufficient driving force for a significant increase in the market, it is expected to mainly operate with strong fluctuations.