According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5105 yuan/ton to 5177 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.42% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%. The domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and risen. The demand side of the terminal has rebounded, and the activity of MTBE transactions has significantly increased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminal enterprises are gradually carrying out moderate stocking, and the overall trading atmosphere in the MTBE market is good.
In terms of cost and crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise of international oil prices are: the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the market to worry about potential supply risks, and the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to support oil prices. As of September 17th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract was $67.46 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while gasoline and diesel prices have fluctuated downwards. Refinery shipments in the region are mainly driven by volume, but there is insufficient improvement in terminal demand. Social units have slow inventory digestion, and intermediate traders have few large order operations. Gas station merchants mainly have a small amount of fast-moving consumer goods, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Resource supply may increase slightly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on September 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $3.66/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $681.52-683.52/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $10.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $929.24-929.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.99/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $825.59-825.94/ton (233.11-233.21 cents/gallon).
The future forecast of raw material prices may be biased towards consolidation, and cost pressure still exists. Some large manufacturers still export to ports, and the overall fluctuation is not significant. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by sporadic fluctuations.