This week, the acrylic acid market is indeed showing a supply-demand game and a strong upward trend in prices. The recent price increase is mainly supported by tight supply and strong pre holiday demand stocking.
As of September 24th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.13% compared to the beginning of this month (6250.00 yuan/ton), showing a significant increase compared to the beginning of the month. Specifically, there are price differences among products of different brands and specifications. The mainstream price range for regular acid is between 5700 and 6800 yuan/ton, which reflects the tight supply of high-quality goods and the strong price. The fundamental driving force behind this price trend lies in the marginal changes in supply and demand.
Supply side:
There are some signals of marginal tightening on the supply side. On the one hand, recent major production facilities have experienced unexpected shutdowns for maintenance, such as CNOOC’s acrylic acid oxidation unit, which has directly led to a decrease in spot supply in Shandong and other places. On the other hand, the export order situation is relatively smooth, diverting some domestic sources of goods. These factors have reduced the sales pressure on the holders and given them the confidence to raise prices.
Demand side:
In terms of demand, as the holiday approaches, downstream factories are conducting rigid pre holiday stocking to ensure production, providing tangible support for market prices. However, it should be noted that as stocking approaches its end, the upward momentum of the market may temporarily weaken and enter a short-term consolidation period.
Cost side:
Acrylic is the most essential raw material for producing acrylic acid. Recently, the propylene market itself has also been in a tight supply-demand balance, with prices stabilizing at high levels. This provides solid cost support for the price of acrylic acid. As of September 24th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6640.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Overall, the acrylic acid market has shown strong price performance driven by unexpected supply tightening and pre holiday stocking demand. However, downstream factories are generally facing cost pressures and mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips for essential needs, which may limit the room for future price increases.