According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 7th to 11th, MTBE prices first rose from 4957 yuan/ton and then fell to 4965 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.15% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.03%. The domestic MTBE market is weakly consolidating, with prices operating in a low range. The market experienced a significant decline in the early part of the week, mainly due to the increase in resource supply and the weak trend of crude oil, with manufacturers offering discounts for shipments. At present, the operating profit of the equipment is relatively high, the resource supply is abundant, and the substantial positive demand is limited. However, the domestic MTBE market maintains a weak operating trend.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the increased instability in the Middle East caused by the Houthi armed attack on Red Sea ships. In addition, market concerns about US tariffs have weakened, and the traditional peak consumption season in the United States is still ongoing, providing support for oil prices. As of July 10th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the September contract was $68.64 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international oil prices may fall, and the expected retail price limit for refined oil products in this round will be lowered. Therefore, the news will have a certain negative impact on the oil market. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Resource supply will further increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on July 10th, the Asian MTBE market closed at $8.53/ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $663.79-665.79/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $18.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $898.49-898.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $10.80 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $715.19-715.55 per ton (201.94-202.04 cents per gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices are operating at a high level, and cost pressure remains significant. The supply of resources will further increase. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market situation may continue to be weak.