According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 14th to July 21st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9166 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.55% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently, boosting market sentiment. During the week, mainstream refineries in China generally transacted at a premium, further strengthening market sentiment and causing market prices to continue to rise. The demand side has shown stable performance recently and urgently needs to replenish inventory. Boosted by favorable supply, the butadiene market rose this week.
On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East has eased compared to before. As a result of this news, the international oil market trend has declined; On the other hand, the market’s concerns about the US tariff negotiations have eased to some extent, and major institutions have a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remains weak. As of July 18th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $66.05 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $69.28 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9400 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the butadiene rubber market has been fluctuating downward recently, with slight fluctuations in the Shunding rubber market in East China. Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, market transactions are mainly small orders, and individual offers from spot market merchants have slightly increased. As of July 18th, the mainstream reports for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11750-12000 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600~11800 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, there have been fewer ship arrivals in the East China region recently, and the market expects a slightly tight supply. From the demand side, the overall downstream demand is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the supply side of the butadiene market will be supported by favorable conditions, with a focus on stable, moderate, and strong operations.