According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market first fell and then rose in July, with an overall decline. From July 1st to 29th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 15500 yuan/ton to 15483 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.11% and a year-on-year price drop of 12.11%.
In early July, except for the maintenance of Wanhua Fujian plant, the northern large factory reduced its load and operated smoothly, while other plants operated steadily and the supply of goods was stable. Downstream demand is sluggish, with small orders being the main focus, leading to a lack of confidence among industry players and a continuous decline in aggregated MDI.
In mid to late July, after the continuous decline of aggregated MDI, the supply side tentatively pushed up, and the low price converged. The price rose to around 15500 yuan/ton, making it difficult to transact at high prices. Under the supply-demand game, the aggregated MDI market began to consolidate and operate horizontally.
Supply side, Shanghai installation maintenance completed. Restart gradually. The 80000 ton/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an will begin maintenance on July 23rd and is expected to last for about 35 days. Hungary’s 400000 tons/year MDI will be gradually shut down for maintenance starting from July 23rd, with an expected maintenance period of about 30 days.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated within a range in July, with overall prices slightly rising compared to the beginning of the month. The average price at the beginning of the month is 5942 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month is 5988 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.75%. Raw material aniline: The aniline market fluctuated and fell in July. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 7900 yuan/ton, and on July 29th it was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.65% during the month.
On the demand side, downstream urgent procurement, entering the market at low prices. There are few inquiries and insufficient support from the demand side.
Market forecast: As the end of the month approaches, the market atmosphere will become weaker, intermediaries’ willingness to ship is weak, and the supply side’s willingness to raise prices will increase. We are waiting for the latest price guidance from major manufacturers, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.