According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 21st to 25th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8721 yuan/ton to 8685 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.41% during the period, a month on month drop of 0.16%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.49%. The domestic supply of BDO has increased. However, the main downstream industries have experienced a decline in production, and the amount of raw materials digested continues to decrease. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and traders are holding a selling and shipping mentality, dragging the market center of gravity down continuously.
On the supply side, the industry’s supply continues to increase, but there is no positive support from the supply side. BDO supply and sales are affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market is stable with small fluctuations. The unstable market operation has led to a reduction in supply, but the temporary recovery of demand has accelerated the consumption of waiting vehicles in the market. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market has rebounded, and as of 10:00 am on July 25th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2500 yuan/ton. The fluctuation and consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG, GBL-NMP, PBAT industries have seen a decrease in load, while PBT, TPU and other industries have seen an increase in production. However, the overall production on the demand side has declined, leading to a continued reduction in raw material digestion and exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand structure in the industry. In addition, under the traditional off-season effect, terminal demand is light, and under the pressure of supply and demand, some downstream industries such as THF, PBT, GBL-NMP, and spandex have seen a decline in market prices, resulting in a compression of profit margins and severe pressure on raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
The future forecast shows that supply will still be significantly higher than demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand will intensify. Moreover, downstream industries are experiencing losses, resulting in severe pressure on raw material prices. The market lacks favorable support. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market may continue to weaken.