According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. As of the 5th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7175 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was normal and the sales situation was acceptable.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the delivery of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene rises, the plasticizer market rises, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market price trend is rising, the downstream plasticizer industry is improving, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is mainly rising, and the high-end transactions in the venue are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7100-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6900-7000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7100-7300 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The plasticizer market has improved recently, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly in the later stage.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13800 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam was stable on January 4, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the trend of domestic pure benzene is strong. The price of domestic pure benzene is 7250-7400 yuan / ton. At present, caprolactam cost support is good, and the confidence in the field has increased greatly. Sinopec quoted 14200 yuan / ton for liquid caprolactam.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will rise strongly in the short term.

DBP prices fell in December

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 31, the DBP price was 9200 yuan / ton, down 5.96% from the DBP price of 9783.33 yuan / ton on December 1; The price rise of raw materials and the preparation of goods in advance before the festival led to a short rise in DBP price, which then fell rapidly. Overall, DBP fell in shock and DBP market fell in December.

N-butanol surged in December

According to the price monitoring of business society, n-butanol first rose and then fell in December. On December 31, the price of n-butanol was 8233.33 yuan / ton, down 7.84% from 8933.33 yuan / ton on December 1; Compared with 7500 yuan / ton on December 13, it increased by 9.78%. In the middle and late ten days, the price of n-butanol increased significantly, the price of raw materials increased, the cost support increased, and the rising power of DBP increased.

In December, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded in December, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose. In December, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 1.77%, and the phthalic anhydride market recovered. The price of phthalic anhydride rises, the cost of DBP rises, and the rising power of DBP increases.

The decline of PVC slowed down in December

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price fluctuated and fell in December, and the PVC price stabilized and the decline slowed down in late October. The PVC market has entered a weak finishing pattern. PVC weak consolidation, general spot market. The demand for plasticizer is insufficient, which is bad for DBP market.

Future expectations

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, in December, the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DBP, rebounded and rose, the price of n-butanol stopped falling and warmed up, and the cost of DBP rose; In terms of demand, plasticizer is in the traditional off-season, PVC market is weak and consolidated, and the demand for plasticizer is general. In the future, the Spring Festival holiday is coming in January, and downstream customers have holidays one after another, resulting in a rapid decline in demand. It is expected that the demand for DBP will be relatively stable in the first half of the month, and then the demand will enter a new low. Insufficient demand makes DBP prices weak, mainly for consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of December 31, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 12166.67 yuan / ton, down 15.12% from the average price of 14333.33 yuan / ton on December 27 and 1.88% from the same period last month.

On December 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 114.61, down 3.14 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 123.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. Recently, the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell sharply, the factory shipment was positive, the demand slowed down, the transaction was light, and the wait-and-see mood was strong.

Upstream, the pure benzene market rose this week. The average price of pure benzene was 7230.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 6830.00 yuan / ton on December 27, an increase of 5.86%. The market price of hydrobenzene in North China rose sharply this week, at 6975.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 6512.50 yuan / ton on December 27, up 7.10%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5260.00 yuan / ton as of December 31.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell sharply this week, the factory shipment was positive, the downstream resin operating rate decreased, the just need to slow down, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. The domestic maleic anhydride stopped falling on Friday, the trading slowed down, and some factory shipments were tight. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be sorted out after the festival.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price: December 30: 20733.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on December 30, the market price of titanium dioxide in China was basically stable. Recently, titanium dioxide enterprises have successively sent letters announcing that the price of titanium dioxide will rise next month. At present, the on-site inquiry is OK, the market confidence is good, and the titanium dioxide market is mainly stable.

It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be stable temporarily in the short term, and the market will gradually improve.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price December 29: 41750 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on December 29, the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was downward. The overall market trading is light, the downstream is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, the overall market demand is weakened, and the market confidence is insufficient. The traders mainly wait-and-see, the inquiry is general, the downstream just needs to be the main, and take it with you. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will be put into operation in the short term.

On December 28, the rare earth index was 803 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 19.70% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and increased by 196.31% compared with the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price of some light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium Series in China has declined, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has declined by 1000 yuan / ton to 840500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 10.25 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 875000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 920000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1.14 million yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1.125 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2905000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.75 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have increased, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, the price of terbium is maintained, and the downstream procurement is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export, and it is expected that the price in the domestic rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (December 27): 7300 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the quotation of domestic cryolite enterprises today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the cryolite market continues to be strong. Affected by the heating in winter, the limited production inventory of enterprises is not high, and the raw material cost pressure of individual enterprises is still high, the cryolite market price is running at a high level, while the downstream demand is OK, and the market trading remains rational, which has restrained the market rise to a certain extent and held a wait-and-see attitude towards the post market insiders.

Future forecast: the cryolite market will operate stably in the short term, and pay attention to the market supply.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on December 24, the average early price of silver market was 4785 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.99% compared with the average early price of spot market price of 4738 yuan / kg last Monday (December 17); compared with the average early price of spot market price of 4653 yuan / kg in early December (December 1), an increase of 2.84%; compared with the beginning of the year (January 01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 13.78%.

On December 24, the spot market price of gold was 372.58 yuan / g, an increase of 0.80% compared with the spot market price of 369.63 yuan / g last Monday (December 17), an increase of 1.68% compared with the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price in early December (December 1); compared with the spot market price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (January 1), a decrease of 5.12%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction and low consolidation, it began to repair.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Today’s domestic macro policy factors

The Central Bank of China today conducted a 7-day reverse repo of 10 billion yuan, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.2%, unchanged from the last time, and another 14 day reverse repo of 10 billion yuan, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.35%, unchanged from the last time. Today, another 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, with a 7-day period.

US data for November

In November, the overall PCE price index of the United States rose by 5.7% year-on-year, the same as 5.7%, the highest level since June 1982; The US core PCE price index rose 4.7% year-on-year in November, higher than the expected 4.5%, a new high since 1989.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to December 18 recorded 205000, which was consistent with expectations and basically the same as 206000 in the previous week.

New home sales in the United States increased by 12.4% month on month in November, reaching an annualized total of 744000 households. Although it was lower than the expected 770000 households, it was also the highest level since April this year. Meanwhile, the final value of the U.S. December University of Michigan consumer confidence index recorded 70.6, slightly higher than the expected 70.4.

Recent news:

1. Biden’s vote on the fiscal stimulus plan was postponed, concerns about the slowdown of economic growth increased, and the precious metals as a whole were still in a volatile trend.

2. The Bank of England is expected to increase interest rates.

Recent long short logic of precious metals

Recently, with the landing of taper expectation to suppress gold prices, the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve announced to accelerate debt reduction, and the precious metal rebounded rapidly after bottoming. The precious metal was supported by risk aversion and “boots landing” in the short term. Although the Bank of England is expected to increase interest rates, the US dollar index has dropped, and on the whole, precious metal prices have warmed slightly.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (December 23): 6180 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic acetic acid market is temporarily stable, the acetic acid enterprises start rationally, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream market just needs to be purchased, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the overall start-up of domestic acetic acid enterprises is not high, the downstream demand is rational, the market supply and demand basically maintains a balance, and the field operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be stable and wait-and-see, and pay attention to the market supply.