On November 25, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was calm, the trading atmosphere was light, and the manufacturers were willing to stabilize the price. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of November 25, 2021, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 14140 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in previous days.

According to some manufacturers, in the last half month, the signing quantity is not good, and the physical inventory may face some pressure. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the market in November. At present, prices are mainly stable.

Upstream staple fiber and pulp Market: due to the weakening of viscose staple fiber market, the pulp price fell slightly, but there is still a distance from the psychological price of chemical fiber factory. Chemical fiber manufacturers purchase on demand. The spot price of domestic wood pulp has stopped falling. As of November 25, 2021, the market price of coniferous wood pulp is 5060 yuan / ton and that of broad-leaved wood pulp is 4574 yuan / ton.

The downstream cotton yarn trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream demand of the terminal is weak, and the price is stable. As of November 25, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19033 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Business analysts expect that the short-term market of viscose staple fiber is dominated by weak consolidation, and the market may need new stimulus points to boost.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly on the 24th. The spot price was 71938.33 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from the previous day, up 24.13% from the beginning of the year and up 32.91% year-on-year.

The inventory of the three major exchanges in the world decreased significantly, the copper dispute in Peru reappeared, the market supply concerns rekindled, and the copper price was supported. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2021, China imported 411000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, an increase of 1.1% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 33.6%; From January to October, the total import was 4.429 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. In October, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 80.45%, with a month on month decrease of 3.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.23%. Real estate orders weakened. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics in September, the year-on-year growth rate of indicators such as new construction, construction and completed area of the real estate sector decreased, and the demand was significantly weakened. Supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the short-term copper price will still maintain a volatile pattern.

Today, Shandong styrene market continued to decline in a narrow range. According to the data of business agency, the production price of styrene in Shandong was 8575.00 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from 8625.00 yuan / ton yesterday.

Crude oil rebounded strongly, pure benzene continued to fall, and the spot of styrene futures continued to fluctuate and weaken. Due to the decline of styrene port inventory, delivery at the end of the month, there is still bargain hunting replenishment demand in the market, which is hedged with the expected supply increment, partial arbitrage suppression, unstable spot transactions, etc. under the collision of bad and good, it is expected that the styrene market will still operate weakly in the short term, and the cost side tends to form a bottom support.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (November 22): 9733 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 22, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 9733 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.34%. On the 22nd, the transaction performance of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was light, the downstream plants started generally, and the demand was mainly to maintain rigid demand. On the 22nd, lihuayi n-butanol delivered 9700 yuan / ton. Luxi Chemical n-butanol closed at 9500 yuan / ton today.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream procurement enthusiasm of n-butanol is not significantly improved. The operators wait and see the market. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market is mostly weak, focusing on consolidation and operation.

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated in a narrow range, the weekly guideline price of Shanghai Kesi was increased, and the supply was too small. Other factories also released the news of stabilizing the market, maintained uniform shipment, and the arrival speed was slightly slow. At present, it is in the off-season of downstream hard bubble demand, the downstream replenishment mood is not high, and the shipment speed of traders is fast, but most transactions are at low prices.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 12 to November 19, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 20150 yuan / ton to 20033 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.58% in the cycle, 10.24% month on month and 7.15% year-on-year.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of November 19:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 19800 yuan / ton 18800-19000 yuan / ton

East China 19800 yuan / ton 18900-19000 yuan / ton

South China 19800 yuan / ton 19000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of November 19:

enterprise ., Model, price

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd Each model 19500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 19200 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Wanhua material 19800 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 19600 yuan / ton

Linyi Shijia Trading Co., Ltd Wanhua material 19600 yuan / ton

The price of pure benzene fell. At present, the decline in the price of pure benzene is mostly driven by styrene. The supply of styrene increased sharply due to the restart of large units and the planned operation of subsequent new capacity, which stimulated the bad mood of the industry and pushed down the price in advance.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: the cost side continues to weaken, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the negotiation is general, aniline continues to be weak and consolidated, and the price in Shandong is 13000-13260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 13600-13700 yuan / ton.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, the 1.1 million T / a unit of Yantai Wanhua operates normally, and the first phase is shut down on November 27 for 45 days. Shanghai keschuang 600000 T / a unit was overhauled on November 15, lasting about 1-2 weeks. The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is depressed and mainly sorted out.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price November 18: 38000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic yellow phosphorus market price was temporarily stable on November 18. The overall market trading is relatively light, the downstream enterprises are not willing to purchase at high prices, just need to take goods, traders wait and see, and the actual transaction price shows a slow downward trend. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 17): 10133.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 17, the phosphoric acid market was generally stable, and some enterprises adjusted their quotations in a narrow range. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus increased slightly. The phosphoric acid Market watched carefully, the price did not change much, and still started the order. The mentality was relatively calm, and the offer was mostly in the range of 9000-11500 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 16): 9140 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on November 16, the closing price of PVC main contract 2201 was 8359 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.62%. The futures price fell for two consecutive days, driving the price of spot market to move downward. Most enterprises reduced the price in the range of 50-200 yuan / ton, and the market center of gravity began to move downward. Although the price of raw calcium carbide rose and the cost support was still in place, it entered the off-season, The downstream demand gradually weakened, the procurement also continued to maintain rigid demand, bargain hunting, and the holders sold at a profit, but the actual transaction atmosphere was poor. It is expected that the PVC market may continue to decline in the short term.

Forecast: the PVC market is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price summary on November 12:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6450 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 6450 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 6550 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6750 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 6450 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the data released by Baker Hughes on the 12th showed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased by 4 month on month and 218 year-on-year this week. The increase of active oil drilling platforms in the United States, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, and the news that the United States may release strategic oil reserves weighed on oil prices. International oil prices fell last Friday.

Today, Sinopec reduced toluene in East China by 250 yuan / ton.

Crude oil fell last Friday, external news was empty, and the focus of toluene market continued to move down. Sinopec lowered the price of toluene in East China, and the spot market followed suit. Weak downstream demand, volatile trend of gasoline and diesel, dominated by regional demand; The weak xylene market depressed the toluene Market.

DBP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, DBP price fluctuated and fell this week, and DBP market fell. As of November 12, the price of DBP was 10866.67 yuan / ton, down 2.69% from 11166.67 yuan / ton last weekend (November 5); DBP continued to be weak this week, and the DBP market fluctuated and fell.

N-butanol fluctuated slightly this week and stabilized after falling

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the decline of n-butanol this week has not stopped. The overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong is running downward again. The enthusiasm for purchasing n-butanol in the downstream is general, and most downstream factories are mainly digesting the raw materials in the early inventory. The slight rebound in the market of raw propylene gave n-butanol increased cost support, the demand of n-butanol downstream butyl factory was stable, the shipment of n-butanol factory was stable, and the support of n-butanol rising in the future was increased. In the short term, the domestic n-butanol market is mainly stable, finishing and operation. The price of raw materials is stable, the cost support is stable, and the support of DBP rise still exists.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the phthalic anhydride market changed strongly this week, and the phthalic anhydride price fell sharply. The phthalic anhydride market is general, the manufacturers’ operation is low, the delivery is general, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, the cost of DBP decreases, and the downward pressure of DBP increases.

PVC stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the bank’s desire rose. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the focus began to move upward. The PVC market rose, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers of plasticizer warmed up, and the driving force of DBP price rise increased.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DBP data analyst at business agency, believes that DBP prices fell slightly this week, and DBP prices fell. In terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, the cost of DBP decreased, and the downward pressure on DBP increased; In terms of demand, the PVC market rose and the demand for plasticizers warmed up. DBP cost pressure still exists, the support of demand recovery and rise increases, and it is expected that the price shock of DBP will stabilize in the future.