According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fluctuated in March. On the whole, the spot prices of various brands rose. As of March 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8990 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the propylene market trend in March is mainly divided into two stages, a substantial rise stage and a decline stage. In early March, the price of propylene rose rapidly to the highest average price of 9283 yuan / ton in the month, an increase of 10.08% over the beginning of the month. Mainly due to the tense situation in Ukraine, the market’s concern about the risk of supply interruption increased, and the rise of propylene increased under the strong pull of crude oil. Insufficient follow-up of demand in the latter half of the year, while the oil price fluctuated and fell. Under the influence of double bad news, propylene rose back and the focus of the market moved down. As of the end of the month, the market was low and volatile. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

In terms of crude oil price shock, the upstream raw material price fell first and then the PP raw material cost fell directly. In the middle of the year, the international market also had differences on stopping the decline and returning the rise of crude oil, but the transmission of benefits was not smooth. At the end of the month, the situation in Russia and Ukraine reappeared the opportunity of easing, and the international crude oil fell again, which was bad for the polypropylene industry chain. In terms of supply, the supply of PP was abundant in March, and there were many inventories in enterprises and midstream. In the second half of the month, enterprises took the initiative to reduce the burden, which did not reach the expected scale, the operating rate of the industry was still high, and the profit of petrochemical plants was under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to the supply of high priced goods. Generally, small orders are taken and followed up carefully. In terms of demand, there was no centralized delivery of goods by downstream enterprises this month, superimposed with the rebound of domestic health events, and the logistics and production in some areas were affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, and the spot market is short.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by business society, as of March 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 9016.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 6.50%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 2.87%. In March, the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials started gradually, and the demand changed from weak to stable. Terminal enterprises tend to take goods just to maintain production, but the market is abundant and competitive. In March, the demand for medical fiber products increased significantly, and the increase of downstream orders also boosted the operating rate of fiber enterprises. Generally speaking, the supply of PP fiber materials was abundant in March, and the cost side bottomed out. It is expected that the operation will be weak in the later stage due to the weakening of the cost side.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose this month. As of March 31, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10283.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 6.20% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. China has a large number of local diagnoses in the whole month of March, with a surge in epidemic prevention pressure. At the same time, it has a pulling effect on the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is generally sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high, which suppresses the increase of meltblown materials. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may still be strong.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that: after the rise of domestic polypropylene market in March, the market of raw propylene surged and fell, the beneficial effect of crude oil cost turned from strong to weak, the boosting effect turned downward, and the transmission efficiency gradually decreased. Crude oil fell again at the end of the month, and the support of PP raw material end began to be empty. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. At the end of the month, the offer of petrochemical plants was stable and rising, and the merchants had accumulated stock in stock. Their mentality was not strong, and the offer was lower. It is expected that the PP market may fall due to the weakening of far-end raw materials in early April.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the market price of 1# antimony ingots in East China was 83750 yuan / ton on March 31, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The rising power of antimony ingots weakened, and the overall market was temporarily stable after rising. However, the market trading is still active. The mentality of some cargo holders has changed and they are mainly active in shipping. The mentality of replenishment in the downstream is weak and there is no obvious demand release. With the price rising all the way, the market speculation funds have weakened, and the downstream is still maintaining rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend. In the future, we will focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises.

Monitoring shows that on March 31, Shanghai Rubber continued to rebound, closing at 13705 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13190 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.9% over the previous trading day and about 0.3% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased. In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun. Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.

Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend, the price will stabilize to a certain extent, and there may be a certain rebound demand in the short term. However, when the demand advantage is not obvious and the circulation is suppressed, the rebound range will be suppressed. We will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of public health events.

Epoxy resin East China liquid resin 25000-26000 yuan / ton Barrel Factory adjustment

The deadlock atmosphere in the domestic epoxy resin market continued, and the East China liquid resin market was delivered in barrels of 25000-26000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day. Upstream raw material bisphenol a rose slightly, while the decline of another raw material epichlorohydrin continued. On the whole, there was little change in cost. East China bisphenol a16400-16500 yuan / ton. In addition, under the influence of the epidemic, the logistics and transportation have improved, and the cargo holders have a great intention to make profit and ship goods, but the terminal demand is difficult to improve. The reference price of liquid epoxy resin in East China is 25000-26000 yuan / ton; The reference price of solid epoxy resin is 22600-23000 yuan / ton.

At present, the trading of epoxy resin market is insufficient, and it is expected to adjust and operate in a weak position today.

region ., Specifications., offer

East China, E51 ., 25000-26000

Shandong Province, E12 ., 22600-23000

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (March 29): 19775 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is flat compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is in a stalemate. Affected by the local prevention and control situation, the logistics transportation is blocked, the downstream purchase is light, and the trading in the terminal market is general. Although the factory intends to support the strong quotation, the market transaction is not ideal, and the mentality of the cargo holders is mainly stalemate and wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500-20100 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: wait and see the TDI market in the later stage, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (March 28): 5066.67 yuan / ton

On March 28, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on March 25. The price of imported potassium chloride decreased as soon as the news that 1 million tons of national reserve potassium fertilizer was expected to be put into use. At present, 62% of the self raised price of white potassium in the port is about 4900 yuan / ton, a slight decrease, and 60% of the self raised price of Dahong granules in the port is about 5200-5500 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4900 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 3500 yuan / ton, and the first arrival price is about 3900 yuan / ton. The market price of 60% white potassium made in China is about 4000-4900 yuan / ton. The downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate Market has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall slightly. The ex factory price of salt lake is about 3500 yuan / ton and the import market price is about 5000 yuan / ton.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable as a whole this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2683.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite continued to move forward steadily, with the price between 2500-2900 yuan / ton, and most of the quotations are near 2600 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of March, the price of domestic soda ash has been rising and falling slightly, falling by 0.95% as a whole, and the price of domestic sulfur has increased by 32.64%. The overall cost of raw materials is still high, and the continuous high cost of raw materials will support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of raw materials is still at a high level, and the cost will support the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite. It is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to move forward steadily in the short term.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 6700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 rose on March 24, up 2.29% compared with the previous trading day. Today, the price of raw liquid wax generally increased, and the manufacturer’s shipment was stable. The price of raw liquid chlorine is stable and slightly adjusted in some areas. At present, the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin is reduced, the demand is general, and the quotation in Shandong is increased. Under the support of cost, the trend of chlorinated paraffin is good. Today, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 6500 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 6700 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui is about 6800 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to rise in the short term.

On March 23, the rare earth index was 927 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 7.94% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 242.07% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index continued to decline. The price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series decreased, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 1 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.23 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.025 million yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.07 million yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1335000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1360000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2885000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.865 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.875 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market fell, and the recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market fell, while the price of terbium series fell. The downstream procurement was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned exports. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will decline in the later period.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (March 22): 3183.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China today increased by 2.14% compared with yesterday. Today, the sulfur market is sorted upward and the increase is slower than that in the early stage. The adjustment range of sulfur fixation price of refineries in various regions in China is mostly 30-100 yuan / ton, while that of individual manufacturers remains unchanged. The adjustment range of liquid sulfur is 30-80 yuan / ton. Qilu Petrochemical has a large increase, with an increase of 260 yuan / ton. The reasons for the rise are the support of the port market. It is difficult to find the supply of goods in the port, and the mentality of the cargo holders is firm. In terms of downstream demand, the sulfuric acid market is good, and the fertilizer is used stably in spring, which continues to benefit the market demand. There is no pressure on the inventory of domestic refineries, the supply of goods in the market is in short supply, and the price of solid-liquid sulfur is running at a high level.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term sulfur market is relatively strong, so we should pay more attention to the downstream follow-up.