According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 15th to 22nd, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7914 yuan/ton to 7714 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.53% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.33%, and a year-on-year drop of 10.15%. During the transition period between the old and new cycles, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with little news of contract order trading and actual spot order negotiations. However, the contradiction between supply and demand continues, and industry players are cautiously bearish. Holders are negotiating on the lower end of the market, and the market center is weakly oscillating.
On the supply side, the overall supply of the industry has increased, but the supply side support is average. The supply side of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: production enterprises have smooth shipments. Downstream maintenance has gradually resumed, external sales of calcium carbide have weakened, and market inventory has shifted downstream. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to be weak. As of 3:00 pm on August 22, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton. The weak consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol, as well as the negative impact of BDO cost factors.
On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG, PBT, and PU pulp production has increased, while the load of other industries has not changed significantly. The demand has increased month on month, but the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry continues. The downstream multi industry market continues to decline, with increased cost pressures and continued resistance to high raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, both the supply and demand sides of the BDO market are expected to increase, but the imbalance in the industry will continue, which will negatively impact the market sentiment. At present, the BDO industry continues to suffer losses, and suppliers are reluctant to sell to stabilize the market. At the same time, with the gradual arrival of the traditional peak season, the atmosphere for downstream industries to enter the market for inquiries has improved, and there is an expectation for early stocking. BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market is expected to stop falling and stabilize.