This week, the market is in a fierce game of “cost support” and “weak demand”. Upstream factories have a strong willingness to raise prices due to cost impact, while downstream procurement maintains rigid demand and suppresses prices. The stalemate between the two sides has led to difficulties in increasing transaction volume, and prices are operating steadily in the low range. As of August 25th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.02% compared to the beginning of this month (6650.00 yuan/ton).
As of August 25th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6605.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton). The cost support ratio has slightly weakened, but the absolute value still provides a support for acrylic acid.
The industry’s operating rate remains stable at around 68%, with 7 percentage points remaining at a medium low level. Factories balance supply and demand by reducing load to support prices.
The sustained inventory pressure of moderately high social inventory+3%+25% is one of the key factors suppressing price increases.
Supply side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remains stable, but still at a high level of around 6600 yuan/ton. The production cost of acrylic acid remains high, and at the current price level, some factories are already near the breakeven line or even losing money. Therefore, manufacturers have extremely limited room for concessions, and firm offers have formed a “floor” of prices.
Faced with sluggish demand, the factory did not choose to lower prices for promotion, but instead adopted a strategy of reducing the operating rate of the equipment. Recently, the overall operating rate of the industry has remained at around 68%, and some factories even have plans to shut down for maintenance. This move aims to stabilize market prices by reducing supply to prevent unlimited inventory growth.
Demand side:
The downstream industries of acrylic acid, such as butyl acrylate (used in coatings and adhesives) and SAP (superabsorbent resin used in hygiene products), have shown mediocre order performance. Especially in the traditional paint industry, which is in the off-season of consumption, the real estate industry lacks prosperity, making it difficult to effectively stimulate the raw material market.
Downstream factories and traders generally hold a bearish or cautious attitude towards the future market, with procurement strategies mainly focused on replenishing essential inventory needed to maintain production, and a very low willingness to stockpile large quantities of goods. And there is a widespread practice of price suppression, waiting for lower prices to appear, forming a “ceiling” of prices. The international market demand is also weak, coupled with fierce competition in overseas sources, the export order volume of domestic acrylic acid and esters has not shown significant improvement, making it difficult to effectively divert domestic supply pressure.
Outlook and Forecast for the Future Market
In the short term, the acrylic acid market is expected to continue its low-level consolidation trend, with limited upward and downward space. If there is no unexpected improvement on the demand side (such as large-scale downstream centralized procurement or a significant increase in export orders), it is difficult to sustain price increases solely through supply side price increases. High inventory and weak demand are the biggest suppressing factors. As long as there is no collapse in the cost side (propylene), the producer’s determination to raise prices will be very firm. Load reduction or even parking in a loss making state will become the last barrier to support the market.

Conclusion: The current acrylic acid market is in a typical “weak equilibrium” state. The low-level tug of war in the market will continue until strong external factors such as cost surges or demand surges break this balance. Market participants are advised to remain cautious, purchase on demand, and closely monitor changes in the key observation points mentioned above.