The acetone market in 2019 is very addictive, falling below 3000 and rising to 6000. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, at the beginning of the year, manufacturers in East China made an offer of 3900 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 41.4% up to 5512 yuan / ton; the lowest price was 2900 yuan / ton on April 5, and the highest price was 5962 yuan / ton on November 27, with a maximum amplitude of 105%. Overall, the acetone market in 2019 is roughly divided into the following stages:
Factory price of acetone in East China in 2019
Market price of acetone in all regions of China in 2019
The first quarter: after the festival, the market demand was depressed. The market of “3.21″ Yancheng water incident was under severe pressure. Acetone fell to the “2″ era, and the lowest point appeared in the whole year.
After new year’s day, the overall performance of acetone market was bleak. Although there were sporadic isopropanol factories to purchase on demand, they were under pressure from the point of view of the suppliers. They had strong intention of contract shipment, and the terminal factories were on the low side of market delivery, which led to the continuous decline of negotiation focus. Then the Spring Festival came and the market was basically stagnant. After the festival, the port inventory rose to around 64000 tons, and the inventory of mainstream petrochemical enterprises was high. Some factories and the reservoir area urged the delivery of goods. In order to complete the task, the contracted customers had a high enthusiasm for shipping, and the focus of market negotiation was constantly low. In March, the domestic acetone market fell to a new low in recent years. It is difficult to improve the situation of high storage in the port, and the downstream terminal is weak in buying gas. Although the importer’s interest intention is limited due to the high import cost, it is unable to resist the double pressure of supply and demand, and the center of gravity is continuously lower. Sinopec’s development unit price is also reduced to cope with this, and the atmosphere of on-site trading is low. Then, with the help of the good news of VAT reform, the operators waited for the opportunity to raise prices in a narrow range. However, the good times did not last long. “3.21″ Yancheng water explosion occurred, and the demand of downstream factories was seriously under pressure, resulting in the market focus falling again and again, and entering the “2″ era in an all-round way. The lowest negotiated price of acetone in the first half of the year is 2850 yuan / ton.
The second quarter: in the second quarter, domestic acetone slightly improved, but it was difficult to make a breakthrough as a whole, and it was generally flat and narrow upward.
In the second quarter, the domestic acetone market entered the stage of rising and falling. Although the port inventory once rose to the level of 74000 tons, Shandong lihuayi Weiyuan plant was shut down, Yangzhou Shiyou plant was restarted, but the contract was reduced; Changshu Changchun prepared materials for the new bisphenol a plant on June 11, and the contract was reduced by one third; Shanghai xisa plant was put into negative operation; and Taiwan chemical supply contract was also reduced. In the case of tight supply of domestic goods contracts, sporadic downstream factories and traders accelerate the pace of replenishment. In addition, with the rising cost of external goods, the intention of low price shipment of port goods sources slows down significantly. In the case of no pressure on domestic contract shipment, the offer is rapidly pushed up. Driven by this, petrochemical enterprises focus on replenishment, the market trading atmosphere is obviously improved, and the market focus is pushed up.
However, with the arrival of high temperature weather, the overall downstream demand performance is weak, the factory and the reservoir area begin to avoid high temperature to control the pace of shipment, and the downstream BPA factory has centralized parking and maintenance, some supporting upstream factories reduce the load or reduce the opening unit price to ease the delivery pressure, resulting in the market price loosening, and the market turns lower again. Therefore, it is difficult for the market to get rid of the magic spell of the up and down space of 200 yuan from May to June. Until the end of June, East China acetone negotiation center was 3050 yuan / ton.
The third quarter: the acetone market came in the spring. With the rising cost, the unit dropped its load and the market rose sharply.
First of all, pure benzene and propylene, one of the raw materials, rose sharply. At the beginning of July, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly, especially in the United States. Due to heavy rainfall and flood, the production load of local factories in the United States is limited, and the supply of pure benzene is reduced due to the decrease of main contract and spot release. In addition, due to the damage of the terminal, the shipping congestion resulted in the delay of the arrival of some pure benzene, and the market forced the price to soar. The cumulative increase has reached 750 yuan / ton to 5250 yuan / ton. In July, the market price of propylene soared like the temperature of this season. By the middle of July, the main transaction volume of propylene price in Shandong had risen to 7950-8050 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of June. The continuous tight supply is still the main driving force behind the rise of propylene price, followed by the continuous breakthrough in polypropylene futures, which undoubtedly injected a “strong impetus” into the market. With the help of many parties, the price of propylene has reached a new high.
Phenol ketone manufacturer “parent son” phenol is not strong, the enterprise loses money, reduces the negative production, the acetone supply reduces. On the contrary, the market of pure benzene and propylene keeps rising, and domestic phenol and ketone factories once fell into the mire of loss. Yangzhou Shiyou, Shanghai xisa, Huizhou Zhongxin and other factories choose to reduce the burden. Up to now, the overall operating rate of phenol ketone plant in China is 87%.
Affected by the higher price of the external market and the decrease of the import volume, the domestic contract goods are shipped smoothly, the acetone inventory of the domestic phenol and ketone factories is low, some manufacturers are limited to ship, and in order to get out of the loss, the manufacturers began to increase the acetone opening unit price. As of the end of the third quarter, the acetone market offered 5000 yuan / ton.
The fourth quarter: after the rational callback, it entered the crazy rise, the highest point of the year appeared, and the market entered the callback period again near the end of the year.
After the National Day holiday, the terminal demand is hard to digest after the early uplink, and the downstream factories gradually appear negative production situation. Compared with the high price intermediate traders at this time, they are less willing to store goods. After the holiday, the market returns to enter a rational callback period, and the offer of large single customers gradually declines. According to the data of business and social supervision, the market offer declines from 5125 yuan / ton to 4350 yuan / ton, and the current market decline reaches 15%. However, in November, the acetone market entered a period of crazy growth. In only one month, the acetone market (East China market as an example) rose by 2000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market in East China increased by 40%, and the negotiation in East China market reached 6350 yuan / ton at the end of November. In December, the market entered a callback period again. Up to now, the overall market has risen in the fourth quarter, up 10.25% (East China factory offer as an example), with a maximum amplitude of 40% (market offer as an example)
The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the port inventory is low and the demand is good, which is the main reason for the crazy upward trend of acetone.
First of all, the arrival of goods at the port has decreased. In November, the ship load was 50000 tons, but in fact, due to the weather and other factors, it didn’t arrive at the port on time. The arrival cargo was relatively scattered, and many sources of cargo had been prepared for the downstream. By the end of last week, the port inventory was less than 10000 tons.
Secondly, under the influence of related products phenol, the enterprise did not start at full load. In recent years, phenol market trend is very poor, reaching the lowest point in the year. Under the impact of the Middle East goods source, port inventory is high, and the pressure on traders and manufacturers to ship is large. Despite the frequent decline of the market, the market is still in a cold trading situation. Although there are bottom reading comments in the industry, most people still operate cautiously, after all, the market is extremely cold. Although phenol ketone factory can limit production and offer price, the crazy acetone market is hard to give up. Nearly 90% of the total construction started.
Finally, the demand for new downstream devices increases. In the downstream MMA industry, Chongqing Yixiang 90000 T / a plant was put into operation in October, and the demand for acetone by manufacturers is around 5000 t / month, which forms a greater support for the demand for acetone. Another is isopropanol industry. The 50000 ton / year unit of Qingdao helica is put into operation. According to the unit consumption of isopropanol and acetone, the demand for acetone is also relatively objective. The downstream of acetone is supported by new units, which forms a strong pull for the increase of demand for acetone.
To sum up, the market in 2019 is generally good, especially in November, the industry profits are considerable, and the market is dominated by the upward trend throughout the year. Although the market is loose near the end of the year, the overall market is still operating at a high level. Now, the market is relatively high, showing a high opening and a low going, and the downstream profits are damaged. At present, the downstream just need purchase and transaction is general. The port shipping period in late December is good, and the port inventory is expected to be good Continue to improve, later acetone market still needs to be cautious.